Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple. Here are my top three NRFI plays for Monday:
- Yankees at Tigers NRFI (-115): Comerica Park is a pitcher-friendly park, and Gerrit Cole and Framber Valdez are quality, proven arms on the mound. Valdez (76.8%) and Cole (71.4%) both rank above league average at NRFI, and the Tigers are a top-five NRFI hit rate team this season.
- Orioles at Angels NRFI (-110): Kyle Bradish looks to build on an excellent last outing against Sam Aldegheri and the Halos. The Orioles have the fourth-highest NRFI rate in the MLB this season, and Bradish has the second-highest career NRFI of all probable SP this Monday.
- Braves at Padres NRFI (-125): Grant Holmes and the Braves take on Michael King and the Padres at Petco Park. The Padres lead the MLB with a 65.3% NRFI hit rate this season, and King can silence the Braves’ bats in the first inning after hitting NRFI in 14 of his 15 starts this season.
Let’s break down those three options in more detail and see why the numbers support these three NRFI plays for Monday.
Yankees at Tigers NRFI (-115)
The first game of the night gets us rolling as the New York Yankees visit the Detroit Tigers in what many thought would be an ALCS preview coming into the year. The Yankees have lived up to their half of that bargain, but the Tigers have been a huge disappointment. The first game of this series is an awesome pitching matchup between Gerrit Cole and Framber Valdez.
Framber will get the ball first for the Tigers, who have a 53.3% NRFI hit rate as a team this year, the fifth-highest in the MLB. Valdez has a 76.8% NRFI rate in his career and has only allowed a first-inning run in five of his 15 starts this season. His last two games have featured scoreless first innings, and he’ll look to keep the Yankees at bay for an inning, which should be easier with Aaron Judge (rib) still out of the lineup and many of the Yankees’ remaining bats from the left side and in a lefty-lefty matchup, that should help Framber through the first frame.
On the other side, Cole will be making his sixth start of the season and he has been able to get through the first inning unscathed in four of his five starts this season. He has a strong 71.4% NRFI rate in his career, and he typically steps up when his team is in big matchups like this one.
Orioles at Angels NRFI (-110)
We’re jumping to the other end of the slate to catch a 9:38 p.m. ET start in the A. Kyle Bradish will be on the mound for the visiting Orioles as they take on rookie Sam Aldegheri and the Angels.
Aldegheri will be making his fourth start of the season and has posted a 4.50 ERA and 4.91 FIP in his 20 innings. However, the young prospect stepped up for Italy in the World Baseball Classic and seems to be settling in at the majors, not allowing a run through the first inning of his last two starts. He did get knocked around by the Dbacks after his clean first inning last Tuesday, but he had only given up one earned run across 11 1/3 June innings before that. He gets a good matchup for NRFI on Monday night since the Orioles have the fourth-highest NRFI rate this season.
The Angels are just over league average with their NRFI rate, and they’ll be facing Kyle Bradish, who has an 81.5% NRFI rate in his career, the second-highest of all pitchers on the slate. This year, he has given up a first-inning run in just two of his 14 starts. His last outing, he only gave up one run while working 7 2/3 strong innings against the Mariners, and he’ll look to build on that outing as he faces the injury-depleted Angels lineup on Monday night.
Braves at Padres NRFI (-125)
This feels like great NRFI value in this late game between the Padres and Braves. The Padres lead the MLB with a 65.3% NRFI hit rate this season, and Michael King has a good chance to silence the Braves’ bats in the first inning as well after hitting NRFI in 14 of his 15 starts this season.
King will have a tough task with the Braves’ top of the order, but he has had a solid bounce-back season overall this year, and he has only given up a run in the first inning one time in his 15 outings. He comes in with a four-game NRFI streak and will look to keep the Braves off the board Monday evening.
The Padres’ offense hasn’t been giving any of their starters much run support, especially early in games. They have only scored a run in 21.3% of their first innings this season, the third-lowest mark in the MLB. Partly a result, Petco has the fourth-highest NRFI rate this season of all regularly used ballparks.
Grant Holmes has an above-average 76.2% NRFI rate in his career and has not allowed a first-inning run in 10 of his 14 starts this season. If King can get the first frame to him without giving up a run, Holmes has a good chance to keep the Padres’ slumping offense silent as well. The two veteran righties should be able to post an NRFI to start this big series in San Diego.
