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Prediction, pick for Bia Mesquita vs. Melissa Mullins at UFC Vegas 119

Prediction, pick for Bia Mesquita vs. Melissa Mullins at UFC Vegas 119

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

Undefeated BJJ icon Bia Mesquita returns to the Octagon Saturday night, taking on Melissa Mullins inside the Meta APEX at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horguchi

Mesquita (7–0, 2–0 UFC) is off to a flawless start in MMA’s flagship promotion, winning her first two bouts via submission — most recently tapping out Montse Rendon in March. Mullins (7–2, 2–2 UFC), who has dropped two of her last three, returns to the cage for the first time since her lopsided unanimous decision loss to Daria Zhelezniakova in June 2025. 

Mesquita enters as an overwhelming -600 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Mullins is a +440 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 1.5 rounds.

Mesquita vs. Mullins Preview

Bia Mesquita (#13)

  • 7–0 (2–0 UFC)
  • 1–0 (T)KO
  • 5–0 SUB

A perfect 7–0 record in MMA is merely a cherry on top of the illustrious career of “The Lady Goat.” Bia Mesquita is one of the most decorated Brazilian Jiu Jitsu mavens of all time, a 10-time BJJ world champion and a fourth-degree black belt. 

Her suffocating grappling provided the runway for a jump to MMA in 2024. In the cage, Mesquita, 35, has bolstered her elite BJJ foundation with refined striking, devastating ground-and-pound, and sound wrestling skills. She quickly captured the LFA women’s bantamweight title before joining the UFC, where she has cinched back-to-back victories via her signature rear-naked choke. On Saturday, the Brazilian star will be on the hunt for another statement performance, with hopes of soon adding a UFC championship to her trophy case.

Melissa Mullins

  • 7–2 (2–2 UFC)
  • 4–1 (T)KO
  • 0–0 SUB

Sunday marks exactly one year since Melissa Mullins last stepped in the Octagon. She returns one night earlier, tasked with derailing one of the most prominent hype trains in the UFC women’s divisions. 

“No Mess” Mullins, 34, has struggled to carve out much of a foothold in the UFC since her 2023 debut. The BJJ scholar from Oxford, England, arrived as an undefeated prospect with knockout power, and she emerged victorious in her first trip to the Octagon. But she has lost two of three bouts since, coming off a unanimous decision loss to Daria Zhelezniakova last June. 

Coming off a unanimous decision loss to Daria Zhelezniakova last June, her shot at redemption got kicked down the road even further after her March meeting with Luana Carolina got canceled. Already struggling inside the Octagon, Mullins will have to recapture her rhythm — fast.  

Mesquita vs. Mullins Pick, Best Bet

After virtually a year away from the Octagon, it seems unlikely that Mullins — no stranger to turbulence in the UFC — can shake off the ring rust before getting caught by one of the most prolific grapplers in the sport’s history. Mesquita has masterfully translated her BJJ dominance to MMA, and she should secure her third straight submission victory on Saturday night. 

Best Bet: Bia Mesquita by Submission (-110)

Cooper Albers profile photo

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.