If recent results are any indication, the Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians may be headed in opposite directions. The Stros took the opener of this series 9-3 last night at Daikin Park thanks to a three-run homer from a struggling Jose Altuve that put his team ahead in the middle stages. The Guardians, meanwhile, are trying to survive without staples of their lineup on IL like Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter.
With game two of the series set for tonight, here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Guardians vs. Astros matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Astros prediction, preview
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians hit the 40-win mark the other day and are 40-36 on the campaign. However, they dropped to a run differential of -13 last night and are just 3-7 over their last 10 outings as they start down absences of key contributors. Cleveland’s 3.96 runs per game are third fewest in the MLB, and an OPS of .684 is also third-to-last. The full slash line reads .229/.314/.370, and against right-handers like they face today, the Guardians have a .224/.310/.370 line for an OPS of .680. Putting the ball in play has been an issue with the third-lowest BABIP at .272, and a wOBA of .305 is fourth-to-last around the MLB. They also lack serious power with just 70 homers and an ISO of .141 that falls in the bottom five. However, a 10.3% BB% and 21.3% K%, both top-10 marks.
LHP Joey Cantillo gets the start for Cleveland today. He has a 5-3 record in 15 games with a 4.38 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 67 Ks across 72.0 IP. The relievers behind him have a cumulative ERA of 3.80, a WHIP of 1.31 and a 16.8% K-BB%.
Houston Astros
The Astros improved to 36-41 on the year with yesterday’s win and are at -35 in terms of run differential. However, they’re up to 16 wins in their last 26 outings and are also 6-5 over the last 10. Houston averages 4.58 runs per game, 12th in the MLB. The club’s OPS of .735 ranks 10th in baseball on a slash line of .244/.319/.416 with a .283 BABIP — against lefties like they face this evening, that same line reads .242/.313/.426 for a .739 OPS. The Astros’ power upside stands out in particular, mashing 102 homers with a .172 ISO that ranks sixth in the sport. Just last night, Jeremy Pena flashed his bat with a pair of homers and put forth his best outing since rejoining the lineup following an injury in May. In terms of plate process, the unit has an 8.9% BB% and a 21.7% K% as well.
It’s RHP Spencer Arrighetti on the bump tonight. He has a 7-2 record in 11 games and has thrown quite well, amassing a 2.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 60 Ks in 63.0 IP. The Astros’ bullpen has continued to improve, posting a 2.51 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last month after ranking 23rd on the year at 4.67 with a 1.38 WHIP and 10.3% K-BB%.
Guardians vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as -149 Moneyline favorites at home today. The Guardians are underdogs at +124 odds to win outright with the run total set at 8.5.
Best Bet: Spencer Arrighetti over 15.5 outs recorded (-133)
Arrighetti was on fire for the first chunk of the season, allowing just seven earned runs across his first eight starts. That got him through May, but since the start of June, he’s been a little shakier with 11 earned runs allowed in three outings. This has been a tough little run of form, however, his baseline performance is probably somewhere between these two trends. Today, we’re targeting an outs recorded prop for him. Arrighetti went at least six innings in six of his 11 appearances thus far, and there’s an even more reliable hit rate on the over for 15.5 outs. He went 5.2 innings in one more of his outings, bringing the hit rate on the over for this line to seven out of 11 total tries. Against a Guardians offense that’s often hapless and is without its superstar bat, it seems Arrighetti should go fairly deep into this matchup on Saturday.
