Major League Baseball has 14 games on the scoreboard this Friday, including several spots where hittable pitchers are in homer-friendly environments. It should be a great way to start the weekend, so let’s dive in and hunt down a few fun home run props that make sense considering the environment, matchup, current form and odds. My top home run props from Friday night are Kyle Manzardo, Jordan Walker, and Jo Adell.
It should be a great day to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Manzardo | Guardians | Lefties have a 51.9% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate against Tatsuya Imai, and Manzardo has been finding his way recently with 3 HR in his last 13 games with a .308 average and .308 ISO. |
| Jordan Walker | Cardinals | Walker has a 73.7% hard-hit rate and 21.1% barrel rate over the last week, and he’s in a favorable matchup against Seth Lugo, who has allowed five of his seven homers to right-handed hitters. |
| Jo Adell | Angels | The Angels get a great matchup against struggling lefty Jeffrey Springs, who has allowed 15 homers in his last 10 starts with a 6.20 ERA. Righties have done most of the damage against Springs, and Adell has two homers and a double against him in their past meetings. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Friday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Kyle Manzardo to hit a home run (+460)
Manzardo will have to step up for the Guardians for the next few weeks since they’ll be without Jose Ramirez (hand), Angel Martinez (foot), and Chase DeLauter (rib). Without all that power, Manzardo will lead the lineup into Houston this weekend, where they’ll start by taking on Tatsuya Imai on Friday night. Imai has a 6.43 ERA on the season and a 7.13 home ERA while serving up five homers in just 35 innings. Lefties have a 51.9% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate against Imai with a .375 wOBA and .181 ISO.
While his season numbers are still unimpressive overall, Manzardo has been trending in the right direction and seems primed to step up into his expanded opportunity. He has hit .308 (12-for-39) in his 13 games in June with three doubles, three homers, a .308 ISO, and a 46.4% hard-hit rate. He has hit six of his eight homers this season on the road, and seven of those eight homers against righties like Imai. He homered on Thursday in Milwaukee and brings good value at these odds on Friday.
Jordan Walker to hit a home run (+337)
Walker and the Cardinals are in Kansas City Friday night for the second game of their three-game set against the Royals. They’ll take Saturday off to avoid conflicting with a nearby World Cup match before finishing things up on Sunday. On Friday, Walker will be taking on Seth Lugo, who is expected to come off the concussion IL after taking a nasty line drive to the face in his last start. Lugo has a solid 3.86 ERA in his 14 starts this season, but he has given up seven homers, including five to right-handed hitters in 110 at-bats against him.
Walker has already set a new career high with 18 homers on the season in just 72 games. He has 18 homers and a .246 ISO on the season, along with excellent contact metrics of 53.4% hard-hit rate and 13.9% barrel rate. He has an even better 73.7% hard-hit rate and 21.1% barrel rate over the last week, and his last home run was this laser against the Twins:
Walker had two hits on Thursday against the Royals, and he has a good chance to go yard Friday in the second game of the series.
Jo Adell to hit a home run (+303)
One of the best home run environments on the board this Friday night is Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. The Athletics will give the ball to Jeffrey Springs, who has been very homer-prone this season, especially at home. With the wind blowing out and temperatures over 70, the Angels should be ready to roll, even without Mike Trout (hamstring) in the lineup.
Springs is 3-7 and has allowed 19 homers in his 15 starts with a 5.13 ERA. At home, he has been especially hittable with a 5.76 ERA and 12 homers allowed in 45 1/3 innings.
Adell is 3-for-9 against Springs in the past with two homers and a double. Righties like Adell have hit 13 of the homers against Springs this year and have a .233 ISO and .360 wOBA with a 9.5% barrel rate.
While he hasn’t homered in 10 games, Adell does have 10 long balls on the season after hitting 37 homers last year, including one on last Juneteenth. His most recent homer came against the Dodgers two wekeends ago:
Even though his form isn’t ideal, his matchup is still juicy enough to back him at +303. If you’re looking for other Angels righties, Zach Neto (+276) is a solid play, while Christian Moore (+488) is a good sleeper after being called up to replace Trout on the roster. Moore had nine homers in 51 games in Triple-A before his promotion.
