Look, I could write some flowery stuff about how this series is a matchup of two of the best teams in the National League. I could say this is a possible NLCS preview. But we all know what the draw is on Friday evening. We’re all here to watch Jacob Misiorowski pitch.
The 24-year-old has been the best starter in the world in 2026, and he seems hell-bent on proving to people that his inclusion in the 2025 MLB All-Star Game wasn’t a charity case. How will he do that? Well, it seems like he’s going to graduate to starting this year’s Midsummer Classic for the NL. At least, that’s how it looks about a month out from the festivities.
Can the Braves do anything against this force of nature? Let’s preview this tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Braves prediction, preview
I think the funniest aspect of Jacob Misiorowski’s current dominance is that he doesn’t really have any faults. There’s usually two knocks on “power” pitchers at the MLB level: When they are hit, they’re hit hard, or they have no idea where their pitchers are actually going. The latter was certainly the case for Misiorowski in his rookie campaign, as the RHP struggled to an 11.4% walk rate. However, he’s cut that in half in 2026, entering action on Friday in possession of a respectable 77th percentile walk rate (6.7%). So… If Misiorowski doesn’t walk the farm anymore, how exactly are teams supposed to score against him? How do you compete with a 100th percentile strikeout rate (39.8%) and 98th percentile marks in both opponent expected batting average (.174) and opponent barrel rate (2.4%)? I guess the lesson we’re learning is — you don’t. Misiorowski sports a 1.34 ERA and a 1.68 FIP. Since the beginning of May, he’s surrendered a single earned run over 54.1 innings. He’s a God among men.
Opposing Misiorowski and the Brewers this evening? Martin Perez. This isn’t necessarily a knock on the veteran lefty, but there might not be a pitcher currently rostered in MLB that is more opposite of what Misiorowski brings to the table. The 15-year pro doesn’t even often crack 90 miles per hour with his fastball, yet that hasn’t stopped Perez from finding a way to be effective in 2026. Over 14 appearances and 62.0 innings, Perez has registered a 2.90 ERA. Now, that surface-level stat obviously comes with some caveats. Perez has benefitted greatly from a .230 opponent BABIP and an 80.2% strand rate — a figure that is far too high for a pitcher that allows as much contact as Perez does. Still, the southpaw looked quite good in his last trip to the mound, holding the Mets to a single run and four hits in 5.1 innings. If it works, it works.
Another thing adding to Perez’s “luck” on Friday is that fact that the Brewers have been a much more dangerous lineup against right-handed pitching so far this season. To wit, Milwaukee owns a 112 wRC+ and a .150 ISO when squaring off with an RHP. Versus lefties? The Brewers have struggled to a 96 wRC+ and a .119 ISO — the lowest mark in the National League. It makes some sense. Christian Yelich, Jake Bauers and Brice Turang are all lefties at the top of Milwaukee’s order, while lefty-killers Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn have battled injuries. That said, both are healthy at the moment, and Vaughn, in particular, is feasting within the split. In 45 plate appearances, the former third-overall pick is slashing .500/.600/.861. Pretty damn good!
Brewers vs. Braves pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-107)
Again, Jacob Misiorowski has surrendered a single earned run over his last 54.1 innings. I won’t sit here and pretend like I trust Martin Perez to completely shut down the Brewers on the other side, but the club has had its issues generating power against LHPs.
Strong Lean: Andrew Vaughn 2+ Total Bases (+124)
The one Brewers bat that has been consistently good versus lefties in 2026 is Vaughn. The first baseman is slashing .500/.600/.861 within the split with a .604 wOBA.
