It’s an interleague showdown tonight in the Bronx. The Yankees (45-28) are on a roll, having won eight of their last ten games. New York will hope to extend its lead in the AL East with a win over the Reds (35-38). Cincinnati, plagued by injuries and inconsistent offense, is hanging on in the loaded National League.
The Yankees are favorites (-285) over the Reds, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s matchup between Cincinnati and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Reds vs. Yankees pick, best bet
- Yankees -1.5 (-125): Schlittler has the edge tonight against a Reds lineup missing their best hitter. On the flip side, Lowder’s weak numbers and peripherals set him up for failure against a dangerous Yankees offense. Back the Bombers to win big at home tonight.
Reds vs. Yankees prediction, preview
Offense has been difficult to come by for Cincinnati in recent weeks. It shouldn’t come as a surprise with face of the franchise Elly De La Cruz (hamstring) on the injured list. The Reds have scored 39 runs over their last ten contests, seventh-fewest in baseball during that stretch. As a unit, they rank 21st in runs scored (311), 29th in batting average (.228) and 21st in OPS (.707). In addition, Cincy has the seventh-worst OPS against right-handed pitching (.693). Keep in mind, most of those numbers have been accumulated with De La Cruz active.
Getting the offense going will be quite the challenge on Friday. New York will turn to Cam Schlittler on the mound, already one of the sport’s premier pitchers. Over 89.0 innings of work, the righty has notched a 1.82 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 96 strikeouts (9.7 K/9). To boot, he leads the American League with 6.4 H/9 and 0.5 HR/9 ratios. Schlittler has surrendered more than two earned runs in just three of his 15 starts this season. His ability to keep the ball in the park also plays well at homer-happy Yankee Stadium.
On the other side, Rhett Lowder will toe the slab for the visitors. It’s been an unimpressive season from the 24-year-old so far. Through ten games, he’s put up a 4.60 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 37 strikeouts (7.1 K/9). A look at the advanced metrics doesn’t paint a pretty picture. Lowder sits within the 25th percentile or worse in xERA (4.99), xBA (.262), average exit velocity (90.4 MPH), chase rate (24.6%), strikeout rate (17.9%) and walk rate (12.1%). In short, he’s been even worse than traditional numbers might suggest.
Lowder’s best trait is limiting the long ball (0.6 HR/9). That’s not easy to do when half of your games are at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Unfortunately, the righty tends to give up a ton of free passes (4.8 BB/9). That’s especially dangerous against a Yankees team that works the most walks per game in the American League (4.25). Even without Aaron Judge (ribs), the Yankees are a force at the plate. Six different lineup regulars on the active roster have a wRC+ above 100. New York has scored 63 runs over its last ten contests, fourth-most in the majors during that time.
Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (-125)
The obvious pick? Maybe, but the pitching matchup here definitively shifts in New York’s favor. A patient New York lineup should find a way to get Lowder out of the game early this evening. Expect Schlittler to dominate on Friday against one of the NL’s weakest offenses.
