The UFC’s Freedom 250 card at the White House is opening up with a three-round Featherweight contest between No. 2 Diego Lopes vs. No. 9 Steve Garcia. Lopes is 27-8 with 23 finishes and is coming off a loss to UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 325. Garcia has won seven consecutive bouts and knocked out David Onama in his previous contest in November 2025.
Check out my best bet for Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia at tonight’s UFC Freedom 250 event.
Steve Garcia Moneyline (+124)
In Garcia’s career, 15 of his 19 victories have come by knockout, and he has scored one in six of his previous seven wins. Garcia comes from Jackson-Wink MMA in Albuquerque, New Mexico, the gym of former UFC Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones. From August 2023 to September 2024, Lopes won five straight fights and became one of the most popular fighters in the UFC. But since then, Lopes has gone 1-2, with two losses to Volkanovski.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Lopes is the favorite at -148 while Garcia is the underdog at +124. This fight has an over/under of 1.5 rounds, with the over being -140. In this fight, Garcia is taller (6’0″ vs. 5’11”) and has a larger standing reach (75″ vs. 72″).
Although Lopes has more high-level experience, Garcia is the better striker statistically. Garcia is averaging 5.39 significant strikes per minute, which is 1.56 more than Lopes. Also, Garcia is more efficient (49% vs. 47%) while only absorbing 2.12 significant strikes per minute, 2.44 fewer than Lopes. Each time Garcia has taken a step up in competition, he has looked unfazed. Getting Garcia at +124 is an excellent value play considering the upside he possesses.
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