It’s Friday, and what better way to celebrate than with a full slate of action on the diamond? The MLB has a jam-packed schedule starting in the evening. There’s a showdown in the nation’s capital between the visiting Seattle Mariners and the Washington Nationals that pits a proven contender against an up-and-coming young offense. This should be a fun one, so lock in at 6:45 p.m. ET today for first pitch.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Mariners vs. Nationals matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Nationals prediction, preview
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners hit something of a speed bump with a pair of losses in their last two games, but there’s still plenty to like about this club. After all, it’s a long season and they’re still atop the AL West at 36-34. Plus, the run differential of +26 is good for second best in the American League, even despite scoring just 4.24 runs per game. The offense has an OPS of .715 that ranks 15th in the MLB on a slash line of .237/.318/.397. The good news as well is that the Mariners face a right-hander today, meaning they get the better of their splits after slashing .247/.329/.423 with 68 of their 90 homers against righties. The club’s ISO of .161 is good for 10th and while an 0.40 BB/K ratio and 22.8% K% aren’t great, it’s not like they’ve doomed the production by any means. One interesting note as well is that Seattle’s .279 BABIP is 26th in baseball, so there’s certainly room for improvement in that regard to reach the offensive ceiling.
It’s RHP Bryce Miller on the mound for the Mariners today. The 27-year-old has been excellent in five games with a 2-0 record, a 1.33 ERA, an 0.78 WHIP and 29 Ks across 27.0 IP. Practically all of his underlying metrics are in the league’s top quartile per Baseball Savant, and he’s backed by a quality bullpen, too. Seattle’s ERA is 3.29, fifth best, with a 1.33 WHIP and a 12.9% K-BB%.
Washington Nationals
What a year it’s been so far for the Nationals, who are still competitive in the NL postseason picture at 35-34. One of the most exciting offenses in baseball has fueled this success, with a +7 run differential that could be far better if the pitching could improve. Washington’s 5.39 runs per game rank second in the entire sport with a .742 OPS that sits fourth overall. The full slash line reads .246/.323/.419, though those marks decrease against right-handers to a .237/.313/.413 line with a .725 OPS. That could prove somewhat problematic today against Miller, however, the club does have 67 of its 89 homers against the split. Plus, a .173 ISO is good for third in the MLB. Washington’s 0.43 BB/K ratio is perfectly fine, and the young lineup has managed to keep strikeouts down at just 21.3% as well. There’s a ton of reason to feel bullish about their ability to compete both now and in the long term.
For Washington, it’s RHP Zack Littell pitching today. He’s thrown 13 games with a 6-4 record, a 4.76 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. However, he has just 39 strikeouts in 64.1 IP, generating very little swing-and-miss action. Plus, he’s outperformed a 5.92 xERA and .281 xBA as well. The Nats’ bullpen has an ugly 4.83 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.6% K-BB% as well, so there’s not much support behind him, either.
Mariners vs. Nationals pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mariners as -148 favorites on the Moneyline tonight, with the Nationals listed at +123 odds to win outright. The total sits at an even nine combined runs between these two clubs.
Best Bet: WAS Nationals +1.5 (-132)
This should make for a very interesting game given the quality of pitching on both sides. The Mariners’ offense is a smidge inconsistent but still plenty hot over the last couple of weeks with a .777 OPS over that span. They have great arms set to throw today as well, especially if Miller’s excellent run of form continues. While the Nationals’ own pitching staff leaves much to be desired, we’re still talking about one of the best offenses in baseball. Can they get enough going with their bats to hang around in this game? I think so, though it may have to come via the long ball if Seattle doesn’t allow a ton of baserunners. I do think this ends up a close game though, so I’m cool with getting Washington to cover the run line today.
