It’s Friday, and what better way to celebrate than with a full slate of action on the diamond? The MLB has a jam-packed schedule starting in the evening. In the early window, the San Diego Padres open their weekend series against the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. It’s Griffin Canning against Shane Baz on the mound as well, setting up a potential showcase for the latter as he seeks to continue building on his recent form.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Padres vs. Orioles matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Orioles prediction, preview
San Diego Padres
It’s unlikely that anyone in the NL West catches the Los Angeles Dodgers, but the Padres remain locked in a battle for second place in the division. They’re in the midst of a skid recently at 3-7 over their last 10 games, but they still have a 35-32 record on the year even despite a -15 run differential. The club averages an MLB-low 3.81 runs per game, though that mark improves to 4.24 on the road, sitting dead last in OPS at .651 as well. The Friars slash just .218/.291/.360 and are on the low end in BB/K ratio at 0.38, largely due to a slightly elevated 23.3% K%. Now, a .261 BABIP does mean there’s likely been some bad luck involved at last in the stat, but the bats just aren’t great, either. San Diego also has a .142 ISO with 67 homers. As for today’s matchup, the club does see the better of its lefty/righty splits against a RHP, but they’re still slashing just .217/.294/.361 against the side for a .655 OPS. Additionally, 54 of their homers have come against right-handers.
Veteran RHP Griffin Canning gets the start tonight for San Diego, going 0-4 in his seven appearances thus far. He has an elevated 6.34 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 32.2 IP, striking out 33 hitters. If there’s any consolation other than one-per-inning strikeout mark, it’s that Canning has a 90th-percentile ground ball rate. However, he’s given up lots of hard contact as well. If nothing else, he’s backed by a bullpen that sits third in ERA at 3.14 with a 1.20 WHIP and a 16.3% K-BB% that ranks fifth.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are having a tough time this year, to say the least. While just 33-37 and realistically not that far out of the Wild Card hunt in the American League, they still have a run differential of -28 and haven’t looked the part of a postseason contender. However, they’ve now won back-to-back games and are looking to build some momentum with this homestand, especially at 21-17 at their own ballpark. Baltimore brings an average of 4.73 runs per game and produces 5.08 at home, the fifth most of any club. The O’s have a .724 OPS and have seen their slash line tick slightly upwards to .241/.322/.401 over the last couple of games. Plus, they’re slashing .247/.329/.416 against right-handers like Canning with 59 of their 82 total homers on them. The overall ISO comes in at .160, just outside the top-10 clubs. A 23.4% K% sits sixth highest, though an 0.43 BB/K ratio does look better than that of San Diego.
RHP Shane Baz takes the mound tonight for Baltimore. He’s gone 3-6 across 13 appearances this season with a 4.09 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 66 strikeouts in 77.0 IP. Following an ugly stretch through mid-May, he’s now allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts and has been coming around as of late, still bringing solid fastball velocity at 96.1 mph on average. The Orioles’ bullpen ERA of 4.60 is on the low end though, also producing a 1.34 WHIP with a 13.0% K-BB%.
Padres vs. Orioles pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Orioles as -131 favorites on the Moneyline tonight, with the Padres listed at +108 odds to win outright. The total sits at 9.5 combined runs between these two clubs.
Best Bet: Griffin Canning over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-133)
It’s been rough sailing for Canning lately, whose 6.34 ERA marks a career worst and 1.47 WHIP comes just 0.01 shy of matching the lowest mark of his seven seasons. Granted, the sample size is minimal since he’s tossed just over 30 innings across seven games, so perhaps it’s too early to definitively make a call on the hurler’s trajectory in 2026. However, things certainly haven’t looked good for him. His average exit velocity allowed is in the second percentile, he has a 12.2% BB% and has a 20th-percentile barrel rate as well. Baltimore’s bats boat a .751 OPS at home and are at .790 over the last two weeks too, so they’re seeing the ball well and smacking it around with a .184 ISO. That doesn’t bode well for Canning, who’s allowed over 2.5 earned runs in five-of-seven starts this season. I’d also consider parlaying this with under 2.5 earned runs for Baz against this paltry Padres lineup.
