Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple. Here are my top 3 NRFI plays for Friday:
- Marlins at Pirates NRFI (-120): Braxton Ashcraft and Sandy Alcantara have both been excellent in the first inning this season. Ashcraft has not allowed a run in 12 of 13 first innings, while Alcantara has only given up a run in the first in three of his 14 first innings.
- Mariners at Nationals NRFI (-105): This is an exceptional value play at almost even money. Bryce Miller has hit NRFI in each of his four starts this year, and Zack Littell has been much more effective lately, hitting NRFI in four straight as well.
- Phillies at Brewers NRFI (-130): Both exciting young arms have been great in the first inning this season. Jacob Misiorowski is 10-for-12 at clean first innings, while Andrew Painter is 9-for-11 in getting through the first unscathed. Both lineups are good, but the young prodigies have typically come out of the gate throwing fire.
Let’s break down those three options in more detail and see why the numbers support those three NRFI plays for Friday.
Marlins at Pirates NRFI (-120)
The earliest game on the scoreboard this Friday night is a good place to start with NRFI picks this Friday. The Marlins visit the Pirates in what should be a solid hitting environment, but the starting pitchers have been strong enough to overcome that factor for the first frame.
The home team goes with Braxton Ashcraft, who has only allowed a run in one of his 21 career starts in the MLB. Ashcraft had delivered a clean first inning in 12 straight starts this year before giving up two runs to the Braves in the first inning of his last start. He’ll look to get back in the groove against the Marlins in a much easier matchup. Ashcraft has a 5-3 record even after taking the loss to the Braves, with a 3.28 ERA and 3.11 FIP.
He’ll be opposed by Sandy Alcantara, who will be making his 15th start of the season for Miami. Alcantara is 5-4 with a 4.33 ERA and 4.06 FIP, but he has been trending in the right direction with back-to-back quality starts in his last two outings against the Nationals and the Rays. On the season, he has 11 clean first innings in 14 starts.
Even though both teams are slightly below league average at NRFI hit rate, the fact that both starters have been excellent in the first inning should overcome that, especially since neither lineup has a ton of power early in the order.
Mariners at Nationals NRFI (-105)
Both starting pitchers in this matchup have had their issues over the last two seasons, but they seem to have found their way lately. It’s an exceptional value play at almost even money.
Zack Littell has been a great option to attack for home run props and stacks for much of the last two years, but the 30-year-old righty has been much more effective in his last five games (four starts). He didn’t allow a run in the first inning of any of those appearances and only has allowed six total runs in 28 innings, while going 5-0 and compiling a 1.93 ERA. The metrics indicate he has been a little lucky with LOB% during that run, but since he’s been rolling so well, he has a good chance to get through the first frame against the visiting Mariners.
In the bottom of the first, Bryce Miller gets the start for the Mariners. Miller has also been an easy matchup to attack over the last couple of seasons, but he has been very good in his five games (four starts) this season. He didn’t make his season debut until mid-May due to an oblique injury, but he hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in any outing while compiling a 1.33 ERA and 4.98 FIP. Like Littell, the underlying metrics don’t fully back up his turnaround, but his short-term form is enough to back him for one more scoreless inning before regression rears its ugly head.
Miller and Littell will look to continue their strong recent form, and even though I’m not fully in on either as a bounce-back performer overall, I do love the value in taking them in this NRFI play on Friday.
Phillies at Brewers NRFI (-130)
In this awesome series at American Family Field, we get a dream matchup for the first game with two potential aces in development on the bump. The Brewers give the start to Jacob Misiorowski, who is already dominant and continues to grow and impress. The Phillies counter with their own young arm with elite upside, Andrew Painter.
Misiorowski is definitely further along in his development than Painter at this point and has begun 10 of his 12 starts this season with a scoreless first inning. The Miz is 7-2 overall with a 1.50 ERA and 1.91 FIP, allowing just 13 earned runs in 13 starts while racking up 116 strikeouts in 78 innings. He’s the “safe” side of this prop, even against the Phillies, who bring plenty of power potential near the top of the order.
Painter is the bigger question mark overall, since he has a 6.21 ERA and has gone only 1-7 with a 5.08 FIP this season. However, the 23-year-old righty has typically started the game well, allowing a run in the first inning only two times in his 11 starts.
With Misiorowski’s 83.3% and Painter’s 81.1% NRFI conversion rate this season, the two electric arms seem ready to duel it out in Milwaukee. While Painter may not be quite ready to match him zero for zero throughout the game, I do think both youngsters have a good shot of working a scoreless first frame.
