Last year, the Phoenix Mercury turned a quick rebuild into a Finals berth, while the Dallas Wings stumbled into the lottery once again. This year, things are quite different; the Wings are in the playoff picture while the Mercury are in a tailspin. Will Dallas continue to surprise the league and climb further above .500? Or will Phoenix begin to reverse its fortunes?
Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Wings are 5.5-point home favorites with -225 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Mercury upset is priced at +185, with the game total set at O/U 169.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Mercury-Wings game.
Mercury vs. Wings Preview
At 4-9, Phoenix is experiencing a familiar sensation: drought. After putting together a couple of wins, their progress was halted by the Golden State Valkyries, losing 87-81 on Tuesday night. It was a tough blow to their chances in the Commissioner’s Cup, falling to 2-2 with a -30 point differential. That was an opportunity to build momentum in what is rapidly turning into a lost season.
For Phoenix, the issue has been finding consistent role players. Other than Monique Akoa Makani, who has been great in the backcourt, they’re not able to deploy consistent rotations. That has put a lot of pressure on Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper on both ends, leaving them with unsolvable problems. Phoenix has one of the worst three-point splits in the league, allowing opponents to make the most threes while ranking in the bottom five in threes allowed and shooting efficiency. They haven’t been able to offset that with their foul-drawing proficiency, putting them in a tough spot.
Dallas’ four-game winning streak was snapped by the league-best Minnesota Lynx, continuing a frustrating trend for Dallas. At 7-4, all four of the Wings’ losses have come against the Lynx and the Atlanta Dream, the top teams in their respective conference. When they’re not playing the elite of the elite, Dallas has cleaned up, picking up wins over playoff contenders like the Aces, Fever, and Liberty.
Offensively, it all starts with Paige Bueckers, who looks like a true franchise talent offensively. She’s a killer in the midrange, elite on the drive, and blossoming into a fantastic playmaker. Dallas is all the way up to second in offensive rating, with Bueckers leading the team in scoring and assisting. The nightly performances are out of this world.
But she’s not the only thing going right for the Wings. Jessica Shepard is averaging a double-double on the season and has been a superb defensive asset. Azzi Fudd, the No. 1 pick in the 2026 Draft, is shooting over 40% from deep and racking up 2.1 stocks per game. Maddy Siegrist continues to provide good forward minutes. Once head coach Jose Fernandez realizes that Arike Ogunbowale is unplayable on this team, they can be a legitimately dangerous team.
A lot of this comes down to the frontcourt matchup. Alyssa Thomas and Jessica Shepard are lined up for a serious battle down low. Shepard will be tasked with defending many dribble handoffs initiated by AT, a primary offensive set for the Mercury. Thomas will have to be active as a help defender to contain Bueckers’ prolific driving. Whoever wins the rotational defense battle will have a significant advantage in this game.
Now we have a good idea what to expect from these teams. Who is going to come out the winner?
Mercury vs. Wings Pick, Best Bet
It’s hard to ignore the fact that the Wings are a significantly better team, especially on the offensive end of the floor. Fudd hitting her stride has made this starting group click, and they can deploy a good mix of shooting and size at any time. Phoenix doesn’t have a defensive answer for Paige, and I expect her to pick them apart on the drive with her playmaking to deliver another Commissioner’s Cup win.
