WNBA Commissioner’s Cup action rolls on this week as we near the halfway point of the conference stage. The Aces and Fire find themselves on the opposite end of things in the Western Conference. Las Vegas sits at 3-0, within striking distance of the top spot in the West; Portland is circling the drain at 0-3. Can the Fire play spoiler for the Aces’ cup chances on Thursday?
Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET. The Aces are 9.5-point road favorites with -375 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Fire upset is priced at +295, with the game total set at O/U 172.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Aces-Fire game.
Aces vs. Fire Preview
So far, so good for the Aces. Seeking their fourth title in five years, Las Vegas is off to an 8-3 start and sitting in the top five in offensive and defensive rating. A’ja Wilson continues to play MVP ball, while Jackie Young remains an excellent all-around player for the Aces. Chelsea Gray is off to a slow start, but that has been offset by Chennedy Carter’s red-hot start. Becky Hammon has done an excellent job at swapping out parts while keeping the engine running.
One thing for the Aces to clean up is their perimeter defense. They’re allowing the second-most threes per game on strong efficiency. When you have A’ja Wilson roaming the paint, three-point volume is bound to increase, but they need to be crisper with their rotations to prevent easy shots.
The Portland fire got off to a very strong start, but the underlying numbers indicated regression was coming. Sure enough, it arrived, right as the Commissioner’s Cup play began. They got blown out by the Valkyries, then lost to a shorthanded Mercury team, then suffered another blowout at the hands of the Sparks. At 0-3, their hopes of making noise in the Cup are all but over if they can’t win this one.
Most of Portland’s issues in the past few games have stemmed from the offense drying up. Bridget Carleton has gone cold, scoring just 13 points on 3-of-13 shooting over their two games. Carla Leite can only do so much to keep them afloat. Their lack of depth is being exposed in a major way and threatening to ruin their frisky start.
So much comes down to the play of Leite. If she can put pressure on Vegas’ defense with her drives, a lot can open up for Portland. The play of Megan Gustafson and Luisa Geiselsöder will be crucial to limiting Wilson’s impact. Las Vegas has a massive advantage in terms of talent and system fit, but anything can happen in the W.
Now we have a good idea what to expect from these teams. Who is going to come out the winner?
Aces vs. Fire Pick, Best Bet
It’s awfully difficult to pick against the Aces when A’ja Wilson is playing like this. She has recorded three straight 20-10 games, including a 34-12-9 line against the Storm — the first such game in WNBA history. Nobody has an answer for the M’VP right now, and with Chennedy Carter probable for Thursday’s game, it seems like an Aces romp is in order. A win ties them with the Lynx at 4-0 in the Commissioner’s Cup, and you can count on them trying to pour on the point differential at the end of the game.
