Through two games of this series, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels have split the pair. Game one ended with a 5-4 finish for the Stros in extra innings before the Halos dominated 10-1 in game two. Tonight, the AL West rivals settle the score (for the meantime).
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Astros vs. Angels matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Angels prediction, preview
Houston Astros
So maybe the statement from yesterday’s write-up about the Astros building momentum was a bit overblown. They now have an overall run differential of -37 following the blowout, with their record just 31-38 as well after a 5-5 stretch in their last 10. However, there are still things to build on for Houston. The Stros average 4.54 runs per game and have one of the best hitters in the game in Yordan Alvarez, and better health should improve the outlook further. The team’s slash line comes in at .244/.320/.408 with an OPS of .728, good for eighth in baseball. The Astros have a .164 ISO and 86 home runs, tallies that also rank in the sport’s top eight clubs. If there’s a clear weakness, it’s that they’re quite bad on the basepaths and are dead last in composite speed score, but that hasn’t entirely held their production back. Tonight, they also face a lefty hurler, which bodes well since it’s the better of their plate splits with a .250/.324/.431 slash line for a .755 OPS, also hitting 23-of-86 homers against southpaws.
RHP Peter Lambert sees his 10th start tonight with a 5-4 record thus far. He brings a 3.55 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 47 Ks in 50.2 IP into this one. He ranks above average in xBA and has outperformed his xERA, limiting barrels nicely but struggling some with his control at a 11.7% BB%. Of course, pitching has been the major issue for Houston throughout the year. While the bullpen remains near the bottom of the sport overall, they have the fifth-best ERA over the last month at 2.76 to complement an MLB-best 1.03 WHIP and a 12.2% K-BB%. Is the improvement real? Maybe, maybe not.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels remain the worst team in all of the American League at 26-42, nearly holding the worst record in all of the MLB were it not for the Colorado Rockies. The run differential moved to -43 after last night’s explosion and they’re now averaging 4.49 runs per contest behind a surprisingly competent offense. The Halos slash .233/.316/.386 as a team with an OPS of .702 that’s good for 21st. They have a pretty even split against righties and lefties, holding a .701 OPS against right-handers with a .234/.315/.385 line. The club’s .153 ISO is a solid one and their 77 homers tie for 12th in baseball. However, there are issues such as an MLB-worst 24.8% K% and an 0.37 BB/K ratio. The plate process leaves a ton to be desired even despite how productive they are at times, and Mike Trout and Zach Neto can’t carry the whole team themselves.
It’s LHP Reid Detmers on the mound this evening for Los Angeles as he makes his 14th start. He’s 2-5 in that span with a 4.26 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 88 punchouts in 74.0 IP. He’s been unlucky in underperforming a 2.93 xERA and .207 xBA, but his chase, whiff and K% marks are all above average, if not bordering on the top 10% of hurlers. The bullpen backing him has a 4.86 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 9.4% K-BB% though, so he isn’t likely to see a ton of support based on the full season’s sample.
Astros vs. Angels pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Angels as -115 Moneyline favorites at home tonight. The Astros come in with -105 odds to win outright on the road. The total sits at nine combined runs between these two teams.
Best Bet: Yordan Alvarez & Christian Walker 1+ combined HR (+132)
We’re taking two sluggers to combine for at least one homer tonight with Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker. The former has 22 on the year, good for second in the entire MLB as he trails only Kyle Schwarber in the stat. Alvarez’s Baseball Savant page is so good it should be framed on a wall somewhere, so getting him to knock a ball over the fence isn’t a bad bet whatsoever. Meanwhile, Walker has 16 dingers and sits 11th in all of baseball himself. His play this season has been much better after a quiet first season in an Astros uniform last season, and with bat speed and barrel rates that rank in the MLB’s upper quartile, he’s not a bad bet to mash a homer here either. Beyond that, he hasn’t hit one in his last nine games, so it feels like he’s certainly due for a blast.
