The Knicks are hosting the Spurs for Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday. After losing the first two games of this series on their home floor, the Spurs punched back with a win in New York in Game 3. If San Antonio can manage to win Game 4, the club will regain home court and this series will become a best of three. However, winning again in Madison Square Garden isn’t going to be any cake walk, as the Knicks are 36-12 at home this season and they had won 13 in a row before Game 3. Furthermore, New York still leads the NBA in net rating this postseason at 16.8 while the Spurs rank second at 9.1. So, will the Knicks get back on track and take a commanding 3-1 series lead? Or, will the Spurs carry the momentum over and even this series? We will find that out tonight in New York in what should be an excellent NBA Finals matchup.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Knicks are a 2.5-point favorite for Game 4 and this contest carries a total of 216.5 points.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Zone [$25K to 1st] (SAS @ NYK)
Captain’s Picks
Dylan Harper ($9,600 CPT, $6,400 FLEX) – Harper continues to thrive in these NBA Finals and rostering him at captain does many things for your lineup. It allows you to roster both Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Brunson in FLEX spots, and it should make your lineup contrarian, as most DFS players tend to pay up for a star at captain for Showdown slates.
Harper was great in the Game 3 win for the Spurs, posting 30.75 FPTS across 32 minutes off the bench. The rookie has now logged 32 minutes in back-to-back contests and he has scored at least 28 FPTS in four of his last five. Harper ranks second only to Wembanyama in net rating for the Spurs this postseason and with the team coming off the huge win, Harper should continue to receive right around 30 minutes in Game 4 and he is underpriced for this type of role. During these playoffs, Harper is generating 1.0 FPTS per minute with a 20% usage rate and 50% field-goal percentage.
UTIL Plays
Jalen Brunson ($16,200 CPT, $10,800 FLEX) – Brunson has struggled with his shot in this series, shooting just 37% from the field, but he continues to put up strong fantasy scores, posting 44.25 and 44.75 FPTS in his last two. The guard has topped 40 FPTS in 10-of-17 starts this postseason and most of the games that he fell short of this threshold were blowouts, which is unlikely to be the case tonight with the Knicks only favored by 2.5 points. Brunson is amassing 1.2 FPTS per minute with a 31% usage rate this season and he should approach 40 minutes in tonight’s pivotal Game 4. Brunson brings a floor of around 40 FPTS and his safety makes him tough to pass up on.
De’Aaron Fox ($11,400 CPT, $7,600 FLEX) – After some up-and-down play, Fox has looked much better in his past two, scoring 34.25 and 32.75 FPTS. In both of these tilts, the guard logged at least 33 minutes and saw a usage rate of at least 20%. Fox is producing 1.1 FPTS per minute and we should have no hesitations about rostering him and Harper together, as the two guards have shared the floor a ton in the last two games and that strategy should continue in Game 4.
Jose Alvarado ($2,100 CPT, $1,400 FLEX) – With at least 10 minutes off the bench in each of the last four games for the Knicks, Alvarado has produced 10, 15.5, 8.75 and 9.25 FPTS. While not exciting, these are sufficient returns at a near-minimum salary and Alvarado should provide around 10 FPTS again tonight, making him one of the top values this slate has to offer. Since joining New York at the trade deadline in February, Alvarado is contributing 1.0 FPTS per minute with a 20% usage rate.
Fades
Stephon Castle ($13,200 CPT, $8,800 FLEX) – Castle was great in Game 3, shooting 57% from the field and finishing with 40.75 FPTS, but before this, he had scored 31 FPTS or less in four straight vs. the Knicks while shooting 43% or worse in all of those matchups. Plus, Game 3 is only the second time in Castle’s last eight during these playoffs that he has cracked 40 FPTS. Castle is going to make a big impact on both ends of the floor, but he is overpriced at these salaries and worth fading after the strong showing on Monday, as some DFS players are likely to chase that performance.
The Outcome
After dropping the first two at home, the Spurs kept their composure and responded extremely well in Game 3. The main reason for San Antonio losing the first two was turnovers, as the club finished with 13 and 16 in those losses, and the Spurs completely flipped that in Game 3, turning it over only eight times while forcing the Knicks to cough it up 13 times.
As a result, San Antonio led for the majority of Game 3 and by as many as 12 points. New York led for less than a quarter of action. The Knicks are a terrific home team with a 36-12 record at Madison Square Garden and they have been the best team this postseason, but New York isn’t the greatest club after a loss, with a 19-12 record, which ranks eighth in the NBA this season. The Spurs should continue to protect the ball better again tonight and they should grind out another win to even this series.
Final Score: Spurs 109, Knicks 107
