The Cubs have reached the point where Coors Field feels less like a schedule spot than an intervention. Chicago is 34-33 after losing six of eight, and Tuesday’s 7-3 loss captured the entire spiral in miniature. The Cubs created traffic, missed repeatedly with runners in scoring position, and watched Colorado land the clean early swings. Hunter Goodman homered in the first, Ezequiel Tovar followed in the second, and the Rockies turned a 25-42 season into one comfortable night. Wednesday gives Chicago a better starter, but it also gives the lineup the kind of opposing arm that can make a cold month feel lighter. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Colorado Rockies and the Chicago Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Rockies vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Michael Lorenzen brings the loudest problem into the game. He is 2-8 with an 8.01 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, 99 hits, 22 walks, 48 strikeouts, and 11 homers allowed across 60.2 innings. That is not one bad inning hiding inside a useful profile. It is constant traffic, limited miss, and too much hard contact for Denver. His underlying damage is nearly as grim, with a .425 wOBA allowed, .379 expected wOBA, 90.2 mph average exit velocity, 46.5% hard-hit rate, and 9.7% barrel rate. Colorado’s staff has backed that with a 5.56 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and .287 opponent average, leaving very little relief behind him.
Chicago still has the right offensive pieces to punish that shape, even while the lineup searches for its April rhythm. Ian Happ has 14 homers, a .251 isolated power, .349 OBP, .481 slugging percentage, and 132 wRC+. Michael Busch gives the Cubs another left-handed pressure point with a .371 OBP, 15.1% walk rate, and 123 wRC+. Pete Crow-Armstrong adds 11 homers, 14 steals, and a 119 wRC+, while Seiya Suzuki’s nine homers and 110 wRC+ keep the middle from becoming too lefty-dependent. Nico Hoerner’s 6.7% strikeout rate also matters against Lorenzen, because balls in play carry extra value here.
Colorado’s answer is dangerous enough to keep the favorite prices uncomfortable. Shota Imanaga has the cleaner season profile at 4-6 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 74 strikeouts, and 19 walks across 76 innings. The problem is the recent power leak, with 17 homers allowed overall and 10 across his last three starts. Goodman is already up to 18 homers with an .845 OPS, and his barrel profile makes every elevated fastball feel expensive. Tovar’s Tuesday homer showed another right-handed route, while Willi Castro’s three-hit game and Cole Carrigg’s debut triple gave Colorado speed and contact around the thump.
Cubs vs. Rockies pick, best bet
That Rockies path is why Chicago’s side and runline are harder to trust than the matchup suggests. Imanaga can pitch better than his recent ERA, but his fly-ball mistakes become dangerous at altitude. The Cubs’ own slump also deserves weight. They are 7-21 across their last 28 games, with a .213/.304/.334 slash and only 3.5 runs per game during that stretch. Tuesday’s 0-for-8 night with runners in scoring position was not random cruelty. It was exactly why asking Chicago to control the entire game feels thin, even against one of baseball’s weakest teams.
The better angle isolates Chicago’s run environment without requiring clean margin. Lorenzen’s baserunner problem starts the argument, and Colorado’s bullpen extends it. Antonio Senzatela, Brennan Bernardino, Juan Mejia, and Jaden Hill have all carried double-digit ERAs over the last seven days, leaving the Rockies short on dependable middle innings. Warm air, low humidity, and Coors’ massive gaps help a Cubs lineup that can score through walks, singles, doubles, steals, and one elevated mistake. The full-game total needs Colorado to fully cooperate, and Cubs -1.5 still invites backdoor chaos.
Best bet: Cubs team total over 6.5 runs at -125. Playable to -125.
Projected score: Cubs 8, Rockies 5.
Best bet: Cubs TT 6.5 runs (-125) at Rockies
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