Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs picked up their first series win over the Knicks to cut the deficit to 2-1. The action will remain in New York tonight, in a pivotal Game 4 matchup. Home court has not been a factor in this series to this point, with the road team picking up victories in each of the first three matchups. Wembanyama will need to set the tone again tonight and lead the same level of desperation they showed in the previous matchup if the Spurs are to even this NBA Finals matchup.
Looking at the odds for Game 4, the Knicks enter as narrow -2.5 point favorites and hold -135 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Spurs hold +114 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 216.5.
Let’s dive into my favorite Victor Wembanyama player props for Game 4 of the NBA Finals.
Best Victor Wembanyama prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 Assists (+128)
Assists are typically not at the top of the list when thinking about the impact of Victor Wembanayma. But the Spurs’ star is coming off a six-assist performance in the previous game, and there is some value on this prop line.
Across the regular season, Wembanyama averaged 3.1 assists per game. This was a career-worst rate for the Defensive Player of the Year, after averaging 3.9 and 3.7 assists in the two seasons prior. Wembanyama still tallied over 3.5 assists in 22 regular-season games. Since the playoffs kicked off, he has seen his assist average dip to 2.8 per game, and he has tallied only over 3.5 assists in four postseason games.
However, the Knicks have been willing to throw multiple bodies at Wembanyama more as the series has progressed. Both Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle can be unreliable as shooters, and New York has been willing to sag off of them to put more attention on the big man. Wembanyama has better instincts as a passer than most players at his size and has shown a willingness to use his gravity to create shots for his teammates.
Part of the Knicks’ improved offensive output across the playoffs was the decision to lean on Karl-Anthony Towns as a passer at a high rate. Expect things to play out similarly tonight from the Spurs’ direction. Wembanyama approaches the game with a team-first mindset and is comfortable deferring to get the right shot. Count on San Antonio to further double down on this game plan, with the six assists in the previous matchup a sign of things to come. Look for Wembanyama to kick the ball to cutters and shooters on the perimeter at a high rate and for over 3.5 assists to be a comfortable bar for the Spurs’ star to clear for the second consecutive matchup.
Victor Wembanyama to Record 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+151)
Given all that Wembanyama brings to the table with his skillset, defenses largely view him shooting three-pointers as a win. Across the regular season, the two-time All-Star shot 34.9% from beyond the three-point arc on 5.5 perimeter shots per game. He knocked down three or more three-pointers in 17 regular-season games. Since the playoffs kicked off, Wembanyama has been attempting 5.0 three-point attempts and connecting at a 36.0% rate. He has connected with three or more three-pointers in six postseason games.
Across this series, Wembanyama has shot 2-for-9, 2-for-6, and 2-for-4 from beyond the three-point arc. The four three-point attempts he launched in the previous game were the fewest perimeter shots since Game 1 of the Oklahoma City Thunder matchup. This is a crucial matchup for both sides, and expect an increased focus on preventing Wembanyama from getting to the rim.
Defending the three-point line has also been a weakness of the Knicks all year. Across the regular season, New York ranked 22nd in opponents’ three-point attempts and 20th in opponents’ three-point percentage. With this being a point of weakness and a shot the Knicks are largely willing to give up, and Wembanyama is comfortable taking them, expect him to attack from this area of the floor at a greater rate. The Spurs star has made two three-pointers in all three games and is coming off his fewest attempts in the previous matchup. New York will surely be making a creative effort to limit Wembanyama’s impact on the interior, and expect this to push him beyond the three-point arc. Count on Wembanyama to find ways to make his presence felt regardless, and for the three-point arc to be a major part of this effort.
