Much of the discourse surrounding the NL East this season has centered on the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies, as the Mets still bring up the division’s rear and the Phillies got off to a slow start before firing manager Rob Thomson. The Washington Nationals, who had the second-worst record in the National League last season, have gone under the radar.
But if the season ended today, the Nationals would be just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot at 33-33, and they climbed over .500 for the first time in June or later since 2021. Washington last made the playoffs in 2019, when it won the World Series behind 20-year-old Juan Soto and the star pitching trio of Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Patrick Corbin.
Tonight, Washington will have a chance to climb back over .500 when it begins a three-game road set against the San Francisco Giants, who sit just fourth in the NL West. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET.
Miles Mikolas will start the opener for the Nationals, and Logan Webb will crest the rubber for San Francisco.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants prediction, preview
Washington hasn’t strung together many runs this season, never losing more than five games in a row or winning more than four games in a row, but given its record across the last six seasons, that represents major progress. The Nationals, in particular, have made strides on offense, tying for fourth league-wide in OPS after finishing sixth-to-last in that stat in 2025. CJ Abrams and James Wood have been a dynamic offensive duo, as Wood leads the National League in walks, runs, and OPS+ and Abrams has an OPS north of .900. The issue is that Washington’s pitching hasn’t been so good, as it ranks in the bottom 10 by both rotation and bullpen ERA. If its offense keeps raking, league-average pitching performance might be all it needs to rise into true playoff contention, which doesn’t seem all that far-fetched.
On the other hand, the Giants started off 13-15, but they weren’t able to maintain that pace, losing 23 of their next 33 games. Lately, though, San Francisco has once again shown signs of life, winning four of its last five games, including two against a contender in the Milwaukee Brewers. Overall, the Giants’ offense has been solid, ranking 11th in OPS behind the exploits of free agency signing Luis Arráez and breakout stars Casey Schmitt and Jung Hoo Lee. Surprisingly enough, San Francisco’s pitching has been problematic; after finishing 17th in rotation ERA and fourth in bullpen ERA last season, the Giants have dropped to 24th and 18th, respectively, so far this season. None of their starters has a sub-4 ERA and only one of their healthy regular relievers a sub-2.5 mark. They’ll need — and perhaps should expect — a bounce-back.
Unfortunately for the Nationals, Mikolas has been shelled all season. In 56.1 innings, he’s pitched to just a 6.39 ERA, and after he’d seemingly found some progress by working with an opener, he allowed six earned runs in six innings of work out of the bullpen against the Miami Marlins last Tuesday. Advanced numbers don’t paint a positive picture of him; he ranks in just the 13th percentile in expected ERA and the seventh percentile in pitching run value. His only strength is his ability to avoid walks, but San Francisco is baseball’s most walk-averse team as is. Mikolas has been exceptionally bad at generating whiffs or strikeouts, ranking in the bottom decile in both stats, and the Giants already have excellent bat-to-ball skills. Additionally, he ranks in just the 10th percentile in barrel rate, which could mitigate San Francisco’s biggest weakness, its tendency for soft contact. At least the splits should be slightly in his favor; although Mikolas has been slightly worse on the road throughout his career, the Giants haven’t hit very well at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.
Webb is clearly the far more talented pitcher. Though he has comparatively struggled this season after finishing in the top six in Cy Young Award voting in each of the last three seasons, a 4.25 ERA is still solid, and he’s allowed one or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts. Most recently, he pitched seven shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Brewers, so he’s in hot form. Advanced numbers are relatively kind to him; both his FIP (3.43) and expected ERA (4.00) are lower than his actual mark, and thanks to his 97th-percentile ground ball rate, he’s done a good job limiting damage. Washington isn’t a great matchup for him because he struggles to generate whiffs and it has above-average contact skills, but the Nationals have largely done damage because of their above-average barrel rate, so he should still be a good bet to keep them in check. The splits are in his favor, as he has a sub-3 ERA in his career at Oracle Park, and Washington has been only slightly better on the road.
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants pick, best bet
Best Bet: San Francisco Giants 1st Run (-105)
As the road team, the Nationals will have the opportunity to hit first, but Webb has been extremely sharp in the first inning this season, allowing just one earned run in such situations. That should give San Francisco at least one opportunity to strike against Mikolas, who I frankly have zero faith in.
Strong Lean: Luis Arráez 2+ Total Bases (+104)
Arráez has had at least two total bases in three of his last six games, so by recent form, +104 represents slightly positive value as is. That’s before considering Mikolas’ 11th-percentile expected batting average. Mikolas mostly throws four-seam fastballs to lefties, and Arráez has a .343 xBA against righty four-seamers.
