While the NBA is in the middle of an era of parity — either the New York Knicks or the San Antonio Spurs will become the eighth unique title-winner in as many seasons — the WNBA is currently experiencing a dynasty. The Las Vegas Aces have won three of the past four titles, sweeping the Phoenix Mercury in the first-ever best-of-seven WNBA Finals last summer.
Throughout their dynasty, the Aces have only won the Commissioner’s Cup once, claiming the title in 2022 before falling to the New York Liberty the following season. They’re in a decent position to advance to the championship game this season, as they’re 2-0 and have an easy matchup at home against the cellar-dwelling Seattle Storm tonight at 10 p.m. ET.
Neither team will be entirely healthy. Las Vegas will be without sixth woman Chennedy Carter (leg), as well as Dana Evans (leg), who has yet to make her season debut. Meanwhile, Seattle remains without Ezi Magbegor (foot) in addition to rookies Tania Meir and Taylor Thierry, who are on developmental player contracts and are limited to 12 games.
The Aces are 15.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-1350 Moneyline), with the total set at 162.5 points. The Storm are +800 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the day’s final matchup and offer a prediction.
Storm at Aces prediction, pick
Las Vegas has picked up right where it left off after its title, posting a 7-3 record to go along with the fifth-best offensive rating and seventh-best defensive rating. Four-time MVP A’ja Wilson looks in position to pick up another one, averaging 25.1 points per game, and Carter has only accentuated what was already the league’s strongest core, averaging 17.8 points per game on ludicrous efficiency. Meanwhile, Seattle hasn’t been able to overcome the offseason losses of Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins, as it has had the league’s worst offense, and rookies Flau’jae Johnson and Awa Fam have both been relatively disappointing. The Storm’s offense should improve in the medium term now that 2025 second overall pick Dominique Malonga has returned from an eight-game stint in concussion protocol, but at 3-9, they may have dug themselves too deep a hole to make the playoffs.
Perhaps expectedly for a team that rosters Wilson, the Aces should have the advantage in interior play. They haven’t done a great job getting to the rim, attempting the fourth-fewest shots within five feet, but they’ve been clinical from close-range, finishing at the league’s highest rate. Meanwhile, Seattle has been even worse at getting downhill and one of the least accurate finishing teams, though Malonga’s return should help with that, given that she’s made nearly four-fifths of her layups this season. Additionally, although Las Vegas has allowed more close-range attempts per game, it has held opponents to the fourth-lowest percentage, and Wilson has been both one of the league’s best high-volume finishers and one of its best rim protectors.
The Aces should be able to extend their advantage on the boards. For the season, they rank fourth in rebounding percentage and the Storm rank second-to-last; even in Malonga’s return, Seattle got out-rebounded by the Minnesota Lynx in a 20-point loss. Neither team has been very good at either forcing turnovers or running the fast break, but the Storm have compounded their issues by turning the ball over at a high rate and not getting back in transition and Las Vegas has done an excellent job taking care of the ball. Furthermore, neither team has drawn many fouls, but the Aces have played slightly more disciplined basketball.
Neither team has relied very heavily on perimeter shooting. Seattle has attempted the eighth-fewest three-pointers per game and Las Vegas the fourth-fewest, but while the Storm have made just 31.6% of their triples, the Aces have converted at the league’s third-highest rate. In the long run, I expect that to be sustainable; although Wilson probably won’t continue to make more than half of her triples, Jewell Loyd’s 27.9% mark is bound to improve, and so could Stephanie Talbot’s 26.1%. Meanwhile, among Seattle’s most frequent three-point shooters, Johnson doesn’t have a WNBA track record of elite shooting to fall back on, and Zia Cooke’s 30.8% accuracy is more or less in line with her career averages. Malonga didn’t shoot the ball very well in her rookie season, either, so there’s no reason to suggest that her 28.6% mark is due to jump. The Storm’s inability to shoot could be a problem against Las Vegas, given that one of its few weaknesses is guarding the perimeter.
Overall, the Aces should win, since they have the advantage in basically every phase of the game and Seattle hasn’t been good enough from the perimeter to take advantage of that relative weakness. Still, 15.5 points is a line for a juggernaut, and Las Vegas hasn’t quite played like one. The Storm’s solid rim protection, especially with Malonga back, should present a challenge for a team that has struggled to get all the way to the rim. If Malonga were absent, I’d take the Aces to cover easily, but with her on the court, Seattle is at least capable of holding its own.
