The Cleveland Guardians remain atop the AL Central, but they face a tough matchup in their next series. Tonight, they begin a three-game homestand against the New York Yankees, who don’t have Aaron Judge but remain a fearsome unit that can still dominate at the plate and on the mound. How will the first outing of the best-on-best series play out on Monday night?
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Yankees vs. Guardians matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Guardians prediction, preview
New York Yankees
One of the Yankees’ games this past weekend was postponed due to weather, but they moved to 38-26 on the year after splitting a pair of contests against the Boston Red Sox. Now, they’re tied for the lead in the AL East and have a +96 run differential, going 6-4 over their last 10 as well. New York averages 5.06 runs per game and boasts the second-best OPS around the MLB at a cool .763. The team’s full slash line comes in at .242/.329/.434, complemented by a .191 ISO that leads the sport as well. The Bronx Bombers’ 91 homers are more than any other club, an 0.49 BB/K ratio means they haven’t sacrificed plate approach for power. New York’s pitching staff also remains elite with a 3.27 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a 15.1% K-BB% that all rank top five in baseball. The bullpen numbers are also quite good at 3.51, 1.27 and 13.6%, respectively.
Will Warren is the starter for New York tonight. The RHP is in the midst of a career-best campaign with a 7-1 record in 12 starts, notching a 3.22 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He’s struck down 70 hitters in 64.1 IP, grading out well in xERA, xBA, K%, BB%, and barrel rate.
Cleveland Guardians
Meanwhile, the Guardians remain atop the AL Central by a two-game margin at 37-30. However, they haven’t been nearly as dominant as tonight’s opponent. After dropping two of their last three against the Texas Rangers — including a 10-0 loss yesterday — they’re 5-5 across their last 10 games and have an overall run differential of just +1. Cleveland averages only 4.06 runs per game, ranking 26th in OPS at .690. The full slash line reads .231/.316/.374 with a .143 ISO and 63 homers. The Guardians are excellent in terms of plate approach though, recording an 0.51 BB/K ratio. If they could get their BABIP up from its current .271 that ranks 27th, this offense could achieve a lot more. In the meantime, the pitching staff has the eighth-best ERA at 3.77 to complement a 1.26 WHIP and 15.9% K-BB%, the latter of which sits fifth overall. The bullpen also comes in around the top half of teams with a 3.74 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and excellent 17.7% K-BB%.
It’s RHP Gavin Williams on the mound for Cleveland this evening. The former first-round pick has a 9-3 record in 13 starts with a 3.20 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 94 strikeouts in 81.2 IP. He brings an 84th-percentile grade or better in chase rate, whiff rate and K% with solid velocity, though he’s giving up high exit velos with a sixth-percentile barrel rate.
Yankees vs. Guardians pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Guardians as -132 Moneyline favorites at home tonight. The Yankees come in with +109 odds to win outright. The total sits at 7.5 combined runs between these two teams.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs (-102)
With two quality pitchers on the bump tonight, the under in this game feels like one of the top picks on the board. Yes, the Yankees have one of the best lineups in baseball when it comes to offensive production. But Aaron Judge is out of the lineup for the time being due to injury and they produce just 4.76 runs per game on the road compared to 5.39 at home. Williams’ grades in exit velocity and barrel rate mean he could give up the long ball, but he’s also kept runners off the basepaths for the most part while striking out plenty of batters. Warren has been pretty great this year even if he’s faded a little lately, and it’s not like the Guardians have an excellent offense of their own. Plus, he’s backed by a stellar bullpen. Those factors set the under up nicely.
