Tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET as part of tonight’s three-game WNBA slate, the Indiana Fever will take on the Washington Mystics. This is the second matchup between these two teams this season. In the first game between these two teams, the Mystics edged out the Fever in a 104-102 overtime thriller.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Fever enter as 5.5-point favorites and hold -218 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mystics hold +180 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 170.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fever at Mystics matchup.
Fever at Mystics Preview
The Indiana Fever enter this matchup with a 5-5 record on the season. They are looking to bounce back from a loss to the New York Liberty on Saturday and have lost three of their last four. Indiana has gone 5-5 against the spread this season, and the game total is 5-5 to the over/under.
Kelsey Mitchell headlines the production on the season, posting averages of 21.1 points and 2.4 assists per game. Caitlin Clark is not far behind with 18.7 points and a team-high 8.2 assists. Clark is listed as probable for tonight’s game due to a back injury. Aliyah Boston is the lone other player on the injury report and is questionable due to a right leg issue. Boston is posting averages of 15.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Sophie Cunningham, Lexie Hull and Damiris Dantas each play key roles as the returning core, while Monique Billings, Tyasha Harris, Myisha Hines-Allen, and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough have made their early impressions as the key additions.
Indiana ranks third in the WNBA in scoring at 89.2 points per game. They also rank ninth in offensive rating, third in pace, eighth in field goal percentage, and ninth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 86.6 points per game against the Fever, which ranks 11th in the league. Indiana also ranks sixth in defensive rating, eighth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and allows the fewest three-point attempts per game.
The Washington Mystics are off to a 4-5 start to the season, and are hoping to bounce back from a blowout loss to the Atlanta Dream on Saturday. Their wins have come against the Toronto Tempo, the Indiana Fever, the Seattle Storm, and the Chicago Sky. So far this year, the Mystics have gone 5-4 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in six of their nine games played.
Sonia Citron headlines the production for the Mystics, posting averages of 17.8 points and 3.3 rebounds per game. Kiki Iriafen adds 16.0 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, while Shakira Austin pitches in 16.0 points and 8.2 rebounds per game to provide balance in the front court. Cotie McMahon, Georgia Amoore and Michaela Onyenwere also play key roles.
Washington is scoring 83.4 points per game, which ranks 10th in the WNBA. The Mystics also rank 11th in offensive rating, fifth in field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage while attempting the fewest three-pointers in the league. Defensively, opponents are scoring 87.9 points per game against Washington, which ranks 13th in the league. They also rank 11th in defensive rating, sixth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 13th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Fever at Mystics Pick, Best Bet
The Mystics edged out the Fever in a 104-102 win during the first matchup between these two teams. Washington out-rebounded Indiana 44-29 to lead to the win despite turning the ball over 21 times. Both teams extended leads to 13+ points during the game. The Fever fought from behind after entering the final period trailing 67-58, but ran out of gas in the overtime period after Caitlin Clark hit a three-pointer with 3.1 seconds remaining to tie things up.
Indiana has yet to fully find their footing this season. They have not lived up to the up-tempo offensive engine that has been their identity. Washington has largely impressed relative to expectations at the start of the season, but their flaws are still evident.
Most notably, the three-point battle heavily favors the Fever’s outlook tonight. Indiana attempts the fourth-most three-pointers per game and ranks ninth in efficiency. They will be facing a Washington defense that ranks 10th in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed and 13th in opponents’ three-point percentage. In contrast, Indiana allows the fewest three-point attempts per game, while Washington ranks last in perimeter volume and 13th in efficiency. During the first matchup between these two teams, the Fever shot 17-for-42 (40%) from the perimeter while the Mystics were 6-for-16 (38%) from deep.
Washington dominated the boards in the first matchup, but Indiana has better rebounding metrics on the season. It has not been the clearest path to get there, but Indiana is starting to trend in the right direction, and this is a great matchup to continue building off it. They still have not scratched the surface of maximizing their talent. However, this is a Mystics team that is coming off a 32-point blowout loss to the Dream, and this is a chance to kick them while they are down.
Washington has struggled at home this season, going 1-2 to this point and averaging just 78.6 points per game in these matchups. With the Fever averaging 89.2 points per game on the season and having scored 87+ in seven games, this is a concern. Expect Indiana to get back to their identity and score at a rate that the Mystics are incapable of matching. It was an impressive performance by Washington in this first matchup, but don’t expect them to have as much shooting success or dominance on the glass. Count on the cream rising to the top for this Indiana team and for them to cover the -5.5 point spread against an inferior opponent.
