Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple. Here are my top 3 NRFI plays for Monday:
- Yankees at Guardians NRFI (-130): Gavin Williams has a 75% career NRFI rate, and Will Warren has a 77.5% career NRFI rate. Both have been solid this season as well, and the Guardians have the second-highest NRFI hit rate this season. Last week, all three games in the head-to-head series hit NRFI.
- Phillies at Blue Jays NRFI (-120): Two established veteran starting pitchers match up with Patrick Corbin taking on Cristopher Sanchez. Both teams are slightly above league average at hitting NRFI, and both starters have been solid in the first frames in their careers and this season.
- Astros at Angels NRFI (-105): Two young arms who have been effective in the first inning bring good value in this matchup. Grayson Rodriguez has hit NRFI in four straight starts to begin his season and has a 76.6% career NRFI rate. Spencer Arrighetti has been sharper this season with an 88.% NRFI rate and no runs allowed in the first inning in seven straight.
Let’s break down those three options in more detail and see why the numbers support those three NRFI plays for Monday.
Yankees at Guardians NRFI (-130)
Let’s start Monday night’s NRFI props with a stop in Cleveland, where the Yankees are in town to take on the Guardians in a potential playoff preview. The teams met in the Bronx last week, and NRFI hit in all three games. The Guardians have the second-highest NRFI rate this year at 59.1%, while the Yankees are just below league average at 46.0%. However, without Aaron Judge, the top of their lineup isn’t quite as potent.
Gavin Williams will try to keep the Yankees quiet in the first frame, and he has allowed no first-inning runs in each of his last five starts and in 10 of his 13 outings this season. At home, he’s a perfect 6-0 in pitching scoreless first innings. Williams held the Yankees scoreless in the first inning last Wednesday, and he earned his ninth win of the season after giving up three runs in 5 1/3 innings.
The Yankees counter with Will Warren, who has not given up a first-inning run in eight of his 11 starts this year. He has a career NRFI rate of 77.5%, which is the second-highest of all pitchers on the mound this Monday night.
Both starting pitchers have been strong in the first inning this year and should put up a pair of goose eggs to start this AL series this week.
Phillies at Blue Jays NRFI (-120)
The highest career NRFI rate of all pitchers on the slate this Monday belongs to Cristopher Sanchez at 78.6%. He has allowed a first-inning run in only two of his 13 starts this season, and he has a six-game NRFI streak as he takes the mound on Monday night in Toronto. The Blue Jays are in the bottom five in the MLB in first-inning run scored %, so that side of this matchup looks very solid.
Before Sanchez takes the mound, though, Patrick Corbin will take the ball for the home team. Corbin has held opponents scoreless in eight of his 11 starts this season, including each of his last three outings. The 36-year-old veteran lefty lost to the Braves last Wednesday to slip to 2-2 with a 3.98 ERA this season, but he has been solid for the Blue Jays as a depth addition for their rotation. He’ll have a potent Phillies lineup to deal with, but it will help that he’s a lefty, since a lot of the Phillies’ power in the top of their order is left-handed.
Both teams are just slightly above league average in NRFI this year, and this is a solid value spot with Sanchez as a dominant half of the matchup.
Astros at Angels NRFI (-105)
For the third of my NRFI prop bets for this Monday night, let’s visit the AL West, where the Angels are hosting the Astros at 9:38 p.m. ET. While both teams have fallen slightly below league average in NRFI this season, the pitching matchup indicates this could be a great spot to get some value at -105.
Grayson Rodriguez will get the ball first for the Angels, and the 26-year-old righty has been great in the first inning this season, despite an ugly 9.50 ERA overall. He has allowed 20 runs in 18 innings over four starts, but has not allowed any runs in the first inning this year. He has a 76.6% NRFI rate in his career, the third-highest on the slate behind only Sanchez and Warren. Even though he has often struggled after the first inning, he has been solid in the opening inning.
The Astros will go with Spencer Arrighetti, who has a much lower career rate but has been very strong this season, allowing a first-inning run in only one of his nine starts. Arrighetti has had a clean first in seven straight starts coming into this matchup, and he should be able to finish the NRFI hit if Rodriguez survives the first inning scoreless against Houston.
Even though the Astros and Angels have low NRFI rates overall, both Rodriguez and Arrighetti have been effective enough to back in this matchup.
