In the late window of today’s two-game WNBA slate, the Fire will take on the Sparks. This is the first matchup between these two teams this season, and they enter with a combined 10-12 record on the year.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Sparks enter as 7.5-point favorites and hold -305 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fire hold +245 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at O/U 175.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fire at Sparks matchup.
Fire at Sparks Preview
In their first season back in the WNBA, the Fire are off to a 6-6 start to the season. They are coming off back-to-back losses and have dropped three of their past four games. So far this season, the Fire have gone 5-7 against the spread, and the game total is 6-6 to the over/under.
Carla Leite headlines the production, posting averages of 14.4 points and 5.1 assists per game. Bridget Carleton adds 13.9 points, while Sug Sutton pitches in 11.3 points and a team-high 5.7 assists. Sarah Ashlee Barker and Megan Gustafson also average in double figures, while Emily Engstler and Luisa Geiselsoder also play notable roles. Sarah Ashlee Barker and Karlie Samuelson are the lone two names listed on the injury report, each considered probable for tonight’s matchup.
The Fire are scoring 82.1 points per game this season, which ranks 11th among WNBA teams. They also rank 10th in offensive rating, fifth in field goal percentage, and fifth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 85.3 points per game against Portland, which ranks ninth. The Fire also rank 12th in defensive rating, 10th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 10th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Sparks are off to a 4-6 start to the season and looking to snap a three-game losing skid tonight. Their four wins have come against the Tempo, the Mercury, the Aces and the Mystics. Los Angeles has gone 3-7 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in seven of 10 games.
Kelsey Plum headlines the production for the Sparks, but has been limited to seven games this season due to injury. When she has been on the floor, the four-time All-Star is averaging 26.9 points and 6.3 assists. Dearica Hamby adds 15.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game, while Nneka Ogwumike contributes 15.0 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Ariel Akins is the lone other player to average in double figures, while Rae Burrell, Cameron Brink, and Erica Wheeler also play key roles.
The Sparks are scoring 88.7 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Los Angeles also ranks sixth in offensive rating, third in field goal percentage, and seventh in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Sparks are conceding 93.0 points per matchup, which is the worst rate in the league. They also rank last in defensive rating, 14th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and ninth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Fire at Sparks Pick, Best Bet
Both of these teams are looking to snap a losing skid and have had some concerning results in the early stages of this season. Getting Plum back from injury is a major positive for the Sparks and will help this team get back to its desired level. But the 7.5-point spread feels far too significant given what has been seen from Los Angeles. The Sparks are 4-6 straight up, 3-7 against the spread, and have lost outright as a 7.5-point favorite once already this season.
While Plum will help the offensive outlook, there are some major concerns with the Los Angeles defense that are not as clear of a fix. The team ranks dead last in opponents’ points allowed and defensive rating. The Sparks gave up 104 points in the previous matchup to the Valkyries, and have conceded more points than this in two other games this season.
My lean is toward the game total going over with the defensive shortcomings in mind. However, my best bet is for the Fire to keep this matchup competitive and cover the 7.5-point spread.
Portland has been favored in just three games this season, but has covered the spread in four of its last seven matchups. Los Angeles has struggled to cover significant spreads this season and has not looked good at home. The visiting team has covered the spread in 11 of the Sparks’ last 12 games, including the last seven home games. The underdog has also won five of the Sparks’ last seven games overall.
The Fire bring a respectable level of fight on an every-game basis. Leite and Carleton are capable scorers who will have success against a team that allows points as freely as the Sparks. Expect Los Angeles to be incapable of delivering the knockout punch throughout the game and for this matchup to remain competitive throughout. The Fire should be viewed as live underdogs, and back the +7.5 spread tonight.
