Sunday’s MLB schedule is mostly focused on the early afternoon, but there are three matchups later in the day that provide some good options to close out the day with some juicy home run props. The Angels take on the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium, while the Padres host the Mets at 4:10 p.m. ET. On Sunday Night Baseball, the Giants are at Wrigley Field to close out the weekend with a matchup against the Cubs. My top home run props from those three games are Marcus Semien, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Rafael Devers.
It should be a great day to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Semien | New York Mets | Semien has 3 HR in his last 6 games and 7 on the season. He’ll face Randy Vasquez, who has allowed 7 HR in 7 GS at home with a 4.54 ERA at Petco. |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | PCA has 4 HR in his last 4 games and gets a good matchup vs. Trevor McDonald, who has allowed 3 HR to lefties in six starts. |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | Devers has a good history vs. Jameson Taillon (4-13, 2 HR), and Taillon has served up 20 HR in 12 games this year. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Sunday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Marcus Semien to hit a home run (+690)
Semien is already almost halfway to his home run total from last season, and even though he’s only hitting .222, he’s a regular contributor to the Mets’ offense. He has been heating up over the last week with three of those homers since last Sunday, including a blast on Saturday night:
Semien and the Mets ultimately lost 3-2 after some late-inning heroics from Freddy Fermin, but they still have a chance for a series win on Sunday afternoon as they take on Randy Vasquez. Vasquez has been decent this year with a 5-3 record and 3.31 ERA, but he has actually struggled more at home with a 4.54 home ERA and seven dingers given up in seven home starts.
Righties like Semien have hit five of the nine homers against Vasquez this season and have a .311 wOBA and an elevated 18.6% barrel rate. Semien is 1-for-3 against Vasquez with a double in their limited career meetings. Semien is a long shot at nearly 7:1, but he has good momentum and will be on the strong side of the splits in San Diego.
Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (+459)
The Cubs and Giants will play at Wrigley in the nightcap and even with the wind forecast to be blowing gently in, I’m taking two swings in that spot based mostly on the matchups. The Cubs will take on Giants rookie Trevor McDonald, who has been solid but not spectacular, and PCA is heating up on the better side of the splits against the righty, bringing good value over 4:1.
Crow-Armstrong played the hero on Saturday, going yard twice in the team’s 3-2 extra-inning win.
He has four homers in his last four games and is up to 11 long balls on the season. Eight of those homers have been against righties like McDonald, and five have come during his current 11-game hitting streak. During that span, he’s hitting .413 (19-for-46) with a 61.8% hard-hit rate and 26.5% barrel rate. As we saw last season, when Crow-Amstrong gets rolling, he can mash home runs in bunches, and he looks like he’s ready to go on a run of offensive production.
McDonald has allowed three homers in his six starts, all to left-handed hitters like PCA. Lefties have hit .284 against him with a .371 wOBA and .194 ISO. The Cubs have multiple lefties that are solid options in this spot, but PCA is swinging the hottest bat of the bunch.
Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+370)
On the other side of that matchup, the Giants will face Jameson Taillon, who has been a great target for home run props this season. The veteran righty has served up 20 homers this season, more than any other pitcher in the majors. Lefties have hit 12 of those homers and have a .393 wOBA with a .331 ISO and 15.5% barrel rate against him.
Devers has a good history against Taillon, going 4-for-13 with two homers against him in their past meetings. He only has eight homers on the season, but he has been heating up lately and went yard on Saturday as well. Devers has 11 extra-base hits in his last 13 games, so even though he’s only hitting .255 during that span, he has a .375 wOBA and .291 ISO. His 61.1% hard-hit rate over that span is higher than his 49.7% hard-hit rate for the season, so he seems to be trending in a positive power direction.
