Flyweight jiu-jitsu specialists collide Saturday night, as Matt Schnell takes on Alessandro Costa at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim inside the Meta APEX.
Schnell (17–10, 7–8 UFC [1 NC]) has dropped four of his last five bouts, punctuated by a first-round submission loss to Joseph Morales last November. Costa (15–5, 3–3 UFC) has alternated wins and losses since his Octagon debut, though he’s coming off a second-round knockout win over Stewart Nicoll in April.
Costa enters as a heavy -650 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Schnell is a +470 underdog, with the total set at O/U 1.5 rounds.
Schnell vs. Costa Preview
Matt Schnell
The Octagon has not been kind to Matt Schnell in recent years. The former No. 7 flyweight in the world has dropped five of his last nine bouts (excluding a 2021 no-contest), all by stoppage within the first two rounds. “Danger” is coming off an opening-round submission loss to Joseph Morales in November, which punctuated a brutal 1–4 stretch.
Schnell, 36, was initially lined up to face surging prospect Imanol Rodriguez, but his game plan got thrown off course following a last-minute withdrawal. Now the Octagon veteran will scramble to concoct an answer for an entirely new style of fighter, one with equally dangerous finishing ability.
Alessandro Costa
Alessandro Costa didn’t wait long to jump back into the Octagon. The 30-year-old Brazilian returns on short notice, riding high after a dominant showing in April — when he flattened Stewart Nicoll with a piercing liver shot for a second-round TKO.
While “Nono” has had an up-and-down UFC tenure, one thing has remained consistent: this guy can bang. After climbing the MMA ranks on the back of his dangerous submission game, Costa seemingly realized that it’s a lot more fun to knock people out. All three of his Octagon wins have come by KO or TKO, and he enters Saturday night with an 80% finish rate and eight first-round stoppages.
Schnell vs. Costa Pick, Best Bet
Let’s do some back-of-the-napkin math here. All of Schnell’s UFC losses — and nine of his 10 career defeats — have come by stoppage within two rounds. Costa’s Octagon wins have come exclusively by knockout in that same time window. Add those numbers together, carry the one, and it looks like the Brazilian has a strong chance to secure his first UFC winning streak.
