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Prediction, pick for Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna at UFC Vegas 118

Prediction, pick for Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna at UFC Vegas 118

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

It’s going down at 135 pounds Saturday night, as Bryce Mitchell faces Santiago Luna at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim inside the Meta APEX.

Mitchell (18–4, 9–3 UFC) returns to the Octagon for the first time since July 2025, when he scored a unanimous decision win (29–28, 3x) over Said Nurmagomedov. Luna (8–0, 2–0 UFC) steps in on nine days’ notice, fresh off a lopsided UD victory (30–27, 3x) over Angel Pacheco in February.

Mitchell enters as a -142 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Luna is a +120 underdog, with the total set at O/U 2.5 rounds.

Mitchell vs. Luna Preview

Bryce Mitchell

One of the UFC’s most controversial fighters is back in action after a nearly one-year hiatus. 

Bryce Mitchell flourished in his bantamweight debut last July, notching a unanimous decision win over Said Nurmagomedov in Abu Dhabi. There, he flashed his patented suffocating grappling, with which he’s secured nine of his 18 professional victories by submission. 

While “Thug Nasty,” 31,  has alternated wins and losses over his past five bouts, his recent track record features some of the toughest fighters on the active roster — including Jean Silva and Ilia Topuria. And on Saturday, Mitchell has a chance to expand his foothold at 135 pounds.

Santiago Luna

Dare to be great. Mexico’s Santiago Luna may only have two UFC bouts under his belt, but the undefeated prospect isn’t backing down from the toughest test of his young career on short notice. After all, his September 2025 debut also came as a last-minute call-up; he shrugged off Quang Lee in the first round and cashed a Performance of the Night bonus in the process. 

Although “Border Boy,” 21, couldn’t keep his 100% finish rate intact in his latest outing, he preserved his “O” with a commanding unanimous decision win over Angel Pacheco in February in Mexico City. Showcasing his dynamic attack, Luna piled up 131 significant strikes and landed all five of his takedown attempts en route to a clean sweep on the scorecards.     

Facing a precipitous hill, Luna looks to cement his rise as one of the UFC’s most promising up-and-comers — with an outside shot of cracking the bantamweight top 15. 

Mitchell vs. Luna Pick, Best Bet

Mitchell was originally tabbed to face a fading veteran in Victor Henry, who at 39 years old had not fought since April 2025. Now, he’s lined up with the polar opposite in the surging prospect Luna, who enters with a perfect resume, serious finishing prowess, and a 10-year age advantage.

“Border Boy” proved in his debut that he’s comfortable stepping into the bright lights with minimal lead time, and his multifaceted skill set should cause problems for “Thug Nasty.” The unbeaten underdog comes with strong value on Saturday night. 

Best Bet: Santiago Luna Moneyline (+114)

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.