Closing down today’s four-game WNBA slate, the Indiana Fever will take on the New York Liberty. This is the first matchup of the season between these two expected heavyweights, who have each gotten off to slower starts to the season than they hoped.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Liberty enter as 3.5-point favorites and hold -155 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fever hold +130 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 175.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fever at Liberty matchup.
Fever at Liberty Preview
The Indiana Fever enters this matchup with a 5-4 record. They are coming off a victory over the Atlanta Dream in their previous game and have won four of their last six, but have already had a few concerning slip-ups. This season, Indiana has gone 5-4 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in five of its nine games.
Kelsey Mitchell headlines the production on the season, posting averages of 21.1 points and 2.4 assists per game. Caitlin Clark is not far behind with 19.8 points and a team-high 8.1 assists per game. Clark is the lone name listed on the injury report and is considered probable due to a back injury. Aliyah Boston is the lone other player to average in double figures, adding 16.3 points and a team-high 7.4 rebounds per game. Sophie Cunningham, Lexie Hull and Damiris Dantas each play key roles as the returning core, while Monique Billings, Tyasha Harris, Myisha Hines-Allen and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough have made their early impressions as the key additions.
Indiana leads the WNBA in scoring at 90.8 points per game. The Fever also rank second in pace, seventh in offensive rating, eighth in field goal percentage, and attempt the fourth-most three-pointers per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 87.0 points per game against the Fever, which ranks 12th in the league. Indiana also ranks sixth in defensive rating, ninth in opponent field goal percentage, and allows the most perimeter shots in the league.
It was a hectic offseason in New York, and the team has not hit the ground running this year. The Liberty enter tonight’s matchup with a 6-4 record overall, but they are on a three-game winning streak for the first time this season. New York is still considered the WNBA Championship favorite at +285 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, but they are still searching for their top-end level internally. The Liberty have gone 5-5 against the spread, and the game total is 5-5 to the over/under.
Sabrina Ionescu has battled injury issues to start this season. She has been limited to just one game played and will miss tonight’s matchup due to back soreness. This has left Breanna Stewart to continue headlining the production, who is posting early averages of 18.8 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. Jonquel Jones adds 13.6 points and 9.3 rebounds, while Marine Johannes and Pauline Astier are each also averaging double figures. Satou Sabally, Rebecca Allen, Leonie Fiebich, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Raquel Carrera also play key roles.
Through their first 10 games, the Liberty rank seventh in the WNBA in scoring at 87.6 points per game. They rank fifth in offensive rating, fifth in field goal percentage, and third in three-point efficiency while launching the third-most perimeter attempts. Defensively, opponents are scoring 83.1 points per game against New York, which ranks sixth in the league. New York also ranks seventh in defensive rating, fifth in opponent field goal percentage, and 14th in opponent three-point attempts allowed.
Fever at Liberty Pick, Best Bet
There have been some early growing pains for each of these teams in the early stages of the season. But when the dust settles, both sides should be expected to be in the upper echelon of the league, and this is a good measuring stick matchup.
My lean is toward backing the points in favor of the Fever in what feels like a true toss-up game. There has been some progress in recent games to find the best version of themselves, but there are still questions about the fit of this Liberty roster. Sabrina Ionescu being sidelined is much more than a footnote, and the team will not find its full peak without her.
However, I am bracing for some high levels of scoring on both sides and expecting the game total to go over the 175.5 line. Both these teams can score at a rapid rate and have some defensive concerns. Indiana wants to push the tempo, get out in transition, and launch three-pointers at a high rate. This will be a problem against a New York defense that ranks 14th in opponent three-point attempts allowed. The Liberty have allowed 91+ points three times already this season, each occurring against teams with less offensive firepower than the Fever. In contrast, Indiana has scored 90+ points in six of its nine games played, including cracking 100 points twice.
On the other side of the matchup, the Liberty have a strong front court that will have some success against this largely guard-oriented Fever roster. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones are two of the better interior scorers in the league, and New York has depth behind them that can also do some damage. Indiana has allowed 100+ points three times already this season, while the Liberty have scored 96+ points four times.
This is a high game total by WNBA standards, but for good reason. Expect a clear focus from both of these teams to score at their desired rate while the defensive shortcomings still show face. For what it is worth, the game totals of the four regular season matchups between these two sides last season finished at 178, 190, 175, and 182. Expect plenty of offense and for the 175.5 game total to be too low.
