After the first two matchups of the NHL Stanley Cup Final, this series is knotted at an even one game apiece. The action now heads to Las Vegas as the Golden Knights play host to the Carolina Hurricanes, and boy, is this race too close to call. Both games have been decided by one goal, and the second came down to an overtime thriller.
The puck drops on the latest battle tonight at 8 p.m. ET. Here’s a Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Game 3 prediction and pick for Saturday’s NHL action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Game 3 prediction, preview
Over the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final, it’s become clear this will continue to be a tightly contested series. Both contests were decided by one goal down the stretch, with late-game heroics playing a massive role. Whereas the Golden Knights surged from down two in Game 1 to win, the Hurricanes did the same in Game 2 and survived a late equalizer that sent the matchup into an extra period of play. If there’s anything to gather from watching, the eye test shows that no lead is safe.
Here’s what’s interesting from Game 2. For the first time all postseason, the Hurricanes did not outshoot their opponent as the Golden Knights tied them in shots on goal at 26 apiece. Generally, Carolina has held its opponents in check while leading the playoff field in shot attempts itself, but it seems the Vegas defense is holding this group somewhat in check. The Canes are yet to reach 30 shots on goal in either contest so far after averaging over 33 per game in the first three rounds.
However, Carolina has still maintained a clear advantage in overall possession. The Hurricanes saw a 60.67% Corsi rate in Game 1 and a 65.66% CF% in Game 2, bringing their series average in the stat to 63.30% when in 5v5 play and 61.93% overall at even strength. The sheer volume of attempts they fling in the direction of the opposing netminder does tend to wear the goalie down over time, but it’s worth noting as well that they have just an 18-17 edge in high-danger chances in 5v5 play. The quality of looks Vegas is getting is what’s helped keep the Knights in this, though the decline of Frederik Andersen has helped.
Speaking of the veteran goaltender, here’s how things are looking now. He’s let eight goals slip through in this series for an .837 SV% and has an .869 SV% since the start of the Eastern Conference Final. With the defense in front of him being tested more than at any point in the Stanley Cup Playoffs so far, it seems he’s being challenged between the pipes far more and cooling off following his .950 mark in the first two rounds. He did come up clutch when it mattered last game though, and given the recent loss of his mentor Claude Lemieux, there’s plenty on the netminder’s mind. It’s not just Andersen struggling, though — in the opposite goal, Carter Hart has also collapsed to an .855 SV% on an admittedly small sample over these first two contests with eight goals of his own allowed.
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Golden Knights as extremely slight -112 home favorites to win on the Moneyline tonight, while the Hurricanes come in as a -108 underdog on the road. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals once again.
Betting splits show 59% of straight bets on Vegas to win, 67% of wagers on the Golden Knights to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 80% on the total’s over.
Yep, you guessed it. There’s no better pick here than taking the over on 5.5 goals. The reasoning is simple, too. With final scores of 5-4 and 4-3, we’ve seen 16 combined shots hit the net over the first two games for an average of eight per night. The over has cashed in both of those contests, and frankly, it’s pretty surprising that the total hasn’t ticked up to 6.5 as we saw in plenty of other matchups throughout the postseason. Neither goalie is playing well and there’s been plenty of scoring thus far, so given the recent trend there along with the abundance of offensive talent, betting on this game to see at least six goals just makes too much sense.
