The latest chapter in one of America’s most iconic sports rivalries takes place on Saturday evening. The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox at 7:35 p.m. in the Bronx tonight, with the stage set for another close one under the lights. Yesterday, the Sox took game one of the series, but will the Yanks get their revenge for that one here?
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for Saturday’s Red Sox vs. Yankees matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction, preview
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox remain at the bottom of the AL East standings with a 27-35 record, though they’ve showed a few signs of life in recent weeks. They’re 5-5 in their last 10 games and have a run differential of just -4, so they’re competitive overall. In a weak American League, they’re still just 3.5 games shy of the Wild Card picture, too. Boston produces just 4.00 runs per game with an OPS of .697 that ranks 22nd in baseball. The full slash line reads .247/.318/.380 with a .132 ISO that falls third-to-last in the sport, and the team’s 48 homers are second fewest. It’s surprising to an extent that Boston doesn’t have a better offense given a .304 BABIP that ranks fourth, but an 0.36 BB/K ratio falls fourth-to-last and holds this team back in a big way. The arms have been carrying much of the load with a 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and a 14.1% K-BB% that all sit in the sport’s top half. The bullpen in particular is among the MLB’s best, producing a 2.99 ERA that leads all teams as well as a 1.18 WHIP and 15.2% K-BB%.
LHP Ranger Suarez starts for Boston tonight with a 3.38 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 57 strikeouts in 58.2 IP. He’s gone 2-3 in 11 starts, bringing above-average grades in average exit velocity, K%, BB%, and barrel rate.
New York Yankees
It’s not a surprise that the Yankees are 37-26, but it is more shocking they’re just second in the AL East as they continue to track the Rays for the top spot. They do have a +91 run differential but are just 6-4 over their last 10 games as they weather Aaron Judge’s injury and related absence from the lineup in recent days. New York averages 5.05 runs per game and boasts the second-best OPS around the MLB at .761. The full slash line comes in at .241/.329/.432 and a .191 ISO leads the sport as well. The team’s 91 homers are more than any other club, but the power hasn’t affected the plate approach since the Yankees remain sixth in BB/K ratio at 0.49. New York’s pitching staff remains elite with a 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 15.1% K-BB%, and the bullpen numbers are quite good at 3.56, 1.28 and 13.7%. This is a true two-way team, though they may be tested a little bit while Judge remains sidelined.
Will Warren is the starter for New York tonight. The RHP is in the midst of a career-best campaign with a 7-1 record, a 3.22 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He’s struck down 70 hitters in 64.1 IP, grading out well in xERA, xBA, K%, BB%, and barrel rate.
Red Sox vs. Yankees pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Yankees as -118 Moneyline favorites at home tonight. The Red Sox come in with -102 odds to win outright. The total sits at 8.5 combined runs between these two teams.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-118)
The -118 odds on the under make plenty of sense here. For starters, there are a few concerns about some poor weather at Yankee Stadium. Warren is absolutely dealing this season and Suarez looks good too, though he’s slightly more unpredictable than his counterpart. The loss of Judge deals a damper to this Yankees lineup, though they obviously remain elite even without him in there. The concern is that they still manage to tee off on Suarez, but realistically, they could get a couple runs and leave plenty of room for the under to still cash. With great bullpens on either side as well, the later stages could also prove low-scoring. Between those factors, the under does look quite good, especially since it probably could’ve been listed a little higher.
