We are so close to the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It’s time to get prepared for the ultimate soccer tournament, starting with a preview of the groups. Today, we’ll be digging into Group F, breaking down odds and predictions.
Group F Preview
Here’s a look at the odds to win Group F on the DraftKings Sportsbook:
The Netherlands has the shortest odds to win Group F at -125. Ranked seventh overall by FIFA, the Dutch have made the World Cup a story of frustration in recent memory. They lost the Final in 2010 at the death, then were knocked out in the semifinals in 2014. 2018 was the ultimate humiliation, missing qualification entirely, before being knocked out by eventual champion Argentina in 2022. To say this is a revenge tour would be an understatement.
Once again, the Dutch will field an awfully strong back line, centered by Liverpool stalwart Virgil van Dijk. He’s flanked by Nathan Aké, Denzel Dumfries, and Jurriën Timber. The fact that Jeremie Frimpong is being left at home speaks to their incredible talent. The central midfield is awfully strong as well: Frenkie de Jong, Tijjani Reijnders, and Ryan Gravenberch are no strangers to the moment, as all three have won major trophies over the last two years. Those three have strong backups in Teun Koopmeiners, Marten de Roon, and Noa Lang, amongst others.
Attack is more of a question mark. Striker is no issue; Memphis Depay and Donyell Malen have long held it down, with Brian Brobbey as an emergency option. Liverpool winger Cody Gakpo will hold down one of the wing spots. But the other wing spot remains a question; Justin Kluivert should be the leader, considering the season he had with Bournemouth, but Crysencio Summerville has a strong case as well. It’s a lot of talent for manager Ronald Koeman to manage. But that’s a champagne problem.
Japan rolls into the World Cup at a rough time. Kaoru Mitoma, easily their best player, has been forced to stay at home due to injury. Without their danger man up top, it makes this an awfully difficult task for manager Hajime Moriyasu and his squad.
They’ll lean on the defense and the midfield to provide a steady base. Typically, the team utilizes a 3-4-2-1 formation, leaning on three centerbacks. Hiroki Ito, Tsuyoshi Watanabe, and Junnosuke Suzuki are key parts of that back line. Japan is loaded with midfielders, including Ritsu Doan, Ao Tanaka, Wataru Endo, and Daichi Kamada. Moriyasu loves moving those players around the formation, between wing and central roles. Some may be asked to play up top in Mitoma’s absence.
Ayase Ueda is a key man at the top of the formation, and Junya Ito figures to play a key role as an attacking midfielder. Keep an eye on Daizen Maeda; the Celtic forward plays a strong defensive game and can score some wonderful goals. Perhaps he is the stylistic fit they need to put their best defensive foot forward and to take advantage of limited chances.
Sweden comes in with the third-longest odds to win the group. Graham Potter’s squad is loaded at the top: Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak form a potent striker duo, with Anthony Elanga able to move all over the formation up top. The rest of the team is a bit of a question mark. Sweden’s midfield is overly reliant on youngsters like Daniel Svensson, Yasin Ayari, Ben Nygren, and Lucas Bergvall to be contributors. Victor Lindelöf is solid at the back, but the rest of the talent is lagging behind. Don’t be surprised to see some high-scoring totals in Sweden’s group stage matchups.
Tunisia brings up the rear. It’s a strange time for Tunisian football; they’ve qualified for three straight World Cups and feel like they’re on the brink of reaching the knockout stages for the first time in the country’s history. But they’ve also watched many of the veterans who carried the first two World Cup squads retire, and they’ve undergone a significant managerial change. They have to keep the momentum going as the team gets younger.
Their young midfield can set the tone here. Ellyes Skhiri, Hannibal Mejbri, and Anis Ben Slimane are all quite talented and can play across the midfield. Whether or not that’s enough to pull off an upset or two remains to be seen.
Now we know these squads a bit better. Let’s get into some predictions.
World Cup Group F Predictions
It’s no surprise that the Dutch are such overwhelming favorites to win this group. They have elite talent top to bottom and hardly ever miss the knockout stages. With the Japanese missing their most important player, things get chalky. But no group is a sure thing, and surprises always happen.
Though I do have the Netherlands winning the group, the value is on Sweden +450 to win. They have the attacking talent to break a tough Dutch defense, and I think they’re very evenly matched with Japan. Assuming they can take care of business against Tunisia, all it takes is one upset to get in the conversation. I believe Graham Potter’s side can do just that.
I also like taking a stab at Donyell Malen to win the Golden Boot at +6500. If the Dutch make a deep run, Malen will be playing a key role up top, and Depay has taken some steps back in recent years. I think he’ll be the top striker choice by the time the knockout rounds begin and will benefit from the excellent service by Cody Gakpo. If you’re a believer in the Orange, take a shot on Donyell.
