It’s summer, which means a lot of people are descending upon Florida. While they’re down there, they might have the opportunity to catch the American League’s best team, the Tampa Bay Rays.
Three AL East teams made the playoffs last season, and the Rays weren’t one of them, but at 36-23, they currently have the best record in the AL. After a sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers, they’ll be looking to get back on track tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET, when they open a road series against the Miami Marlins.
Drew Rasmussen will start the series opener for Tampa Bay, and Miami will counter with Ryan Gusto.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins prediction, preview
The Rays had been incredible for the first 49 games of the season, jumping out to a 34-15 start, but since then, they’ve cooled down significantly, losing eight of their last 10 games, and their run differential suggests that they should be merely a 30-29 team. Still, it’s been a resounding success overall, and having a top-10 offense represents some progress after they finished 14th in OPS last season. Junior Caminero finished ninth in MVP voting last season and has a higher OPS so far this season, forming a pretty dynamic offensive trio alongside Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Díaz. Additionally, Tampa Bay has had a top-five rotation in baseball, as converted reliever Nick Martinez has been tremendous and Shane McClanahan has looked good in his first 11 starts after missing back-to-back seasons with injuries. The Rays’ bullpen has still been bad, posting the ninth-highest ERA, but at least it leads all MLB relief corps in wins.
Meanwhile, the Marlins have had roughly the same season as they had in 2025, hovering around .500 at 29-34, though they’re coming off of a sweep against the Washington Nationals. Miami’s offense has performed three OPS points worse than it did last season, but at least Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez (who leads all of the major leagues in both batting average and hits) look like the middle infield of the future. The Marlins are in line to improve eventually once top prospect Owen Caissie figures out MLB pitching. Miami’s bullpen has also made some strides, as long reliever Tyler Phillips has emerged as an especially valuable asset, but its rotation has still been poor, and Eury Pérez and Janson Junk are both on the IL.
Rasmussen is coming off of his roughest start of the season, a four-inning, five-run outing against the Los Angeles Angels on May 30, but it was a rare off start for one of baseball’s sturdiest pitchers. He hasn’t always pitched complete seasons, but he’s had a sub-3 ERA in each of the prior five campaigns and finished ninth in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2025. Advanced numbers are fairly kind to him, as he owns a 73rd-percentile expected ERA and an 82nd-percentile pitching run value. Additionally, he has very few exploitable weaknesses, ranking below the league median in only whiff rate and expected batting average, though the Marlins could be well-suited to take advantage of that, given that they rarely whiff as is. His strengths should exacerbate Miami’s weaknesses: he has an 88th-percentile ground ball rate and a 93rd-percentile walk rate, and the Marlins neither earn many free passes nor hit the ball in the air very frequently. Their contact is far too soft to take advantage of his league-median barrel rate, even though they’ve been slightly better at home and Rasmussen slightly worse on the road.
Gusto has only made two relief appearances this season, but he made 17 starts last season and had a 6.28 ERA in them. Additionally, he’s been good but not elite in the minors, pitching to a 3.83 ERA for Triple-A Jacksonville in 10 appearances (seven starts), though he pitched well in each of his last four outings in the minors. Given that he last pitched on Tuesday, I’d expect him to pitch two or three innings before handing it over to the bullpen, and given his poor Statcast numbers both this season and 2025, I don’t expect those innings to be very effective. However, fortunes might turn around after Gusto exits the game; the Miami staff’s high barrel rate might not be much of a problem against Tampa Bay, given that it has been baseball’s softest-hitting team this season, and its ability to generate chases and whiffs could help it manage the Rays’ contact-oriented offense. The splits significantly favor the Marlins; their staff has been passable at home but atrocious on the road, while Tampa Bay has a barely above-average road OPS.
Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8 (-119)
I believe in Rasmussen’s ability to shut down Miami’s offense, which leaves the Marlins only a few innings to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s mediocre bullpen, and the likelihood that Gusto’s start will be truncated by his lack of rest is a good thing, given his weakness relative to Miami’s bullpen.
Strong Lean: Drew Rasmussen 5+ Strikeouts (-121)
The Marlins have decent bat-to-ball skills, but they’ve still struck out the 17th-most times. That’s not infrequent enough to justify barely-negative odds for Rasmussen, who’s reached five strikeouts in seven of his 11 starts.
