Last year, the Phoenix Mercury made it all the way to the WNBA Finals, while the Portland Fire were preparing for an expansion draft. One team riding high, the other just coming into existence. And yet here we are: the Fire are 6-5 and looking dangerous, while the Mercury are in a complete tailspin at 3-8. Can they right the ship? Or will Portland continue to roll?
Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET. The Fire are 4.5-point home favorites with -175 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Mercury upset is priced at +145, with the game total set at O/U 158.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Mercury-Fire game.
Mercury vs. Fire Preview
It was always going to be difficult dealing with the loss of Satou Sabally. Phoenix had no answer for the All-Star’s departure, and it left them behind the curve. But I don’t think anyone could have anticipated just how bad things would get. After an acceptable 2-2 start, the Mercury endured a six-game skid that has all but destroyed their hopes for the season. In a season this short, you can’t afford for things to get away from you that fast.
After finishing sixth in total net rating last year, they’ve dropped all the way to 12th. Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper are more geared towards playoff hoops anyway, but you have to get there in the first place. We may be headed for a full teardown in Phoenix if they can’t build a lengthy winning streak soon.
Portland’s underlying numbers may not look great, but at 6-5, nobody is complaining. Much like the Valkyries last season, the Fire are trying to get up as many threes as possible and have found success doing so. Bridget Carleton, their top-scoring option, is letting it fly from deep 6.6 times per game and cashing in at 37.9%. Emily Engstler, a defensive menace, has been lighting it up from three. With Carla Leite organizing things offensively, they have a good formula going.
Defense is another question for the Fire. Engstler is doing most of the heavy lifting on that end, and the rest of the team is still figuring it out. If head coach Alex Sarama can coax a bit more defensive production out of this team, they could be a serious threat for a playoff spot.
Now we have a good idea what to expect from these teams. Who is going to come out the winner?
Mercury vs. Fire Pick, Best Bet
Sometimes, you have to throw out what you see on paper. Phoenix may have the top two players in this matchup, but their depth is completely gone. Portland has a case for the majority of the top ten talents in this game. They’re showing impressive cohesion as a group despite being an expansion roster, while some Mercury games feel like they’re playing basketball for the first time. With Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper ruled out shortly before tipoff, it’s only going to get worse. I’ll pick Portland as the home favorite here; there’s no trusting Phoenix right now.
