As the sports cliche goes, a series doesn’t start until the road team steals a game. If that’s the case, the NBA Finals are in full swing after the New York Knicks took the series opener earlier this week in San Antonio. On Friday night, Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns look to take a commanding 2-0 lead against the Spurs. Surely, a motivated Victor Wembanyama may have some thoughts about that possibility.
Here’s a Knicks vs. Spurs prediction and pick for Game 2 of the NBA Finals on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Knicks vs. Spurs prediction, preview
Game 1 of this series was certainly a thriller. The Spurs held a 14-point lead in the second half on their home court, but the visiting Knicks got hot at the right time to erase that margin and eventually went on an 11-0 run down the stretch to secure the comeback and win 105-95. Jalen Brunson finished the night with 30 points, though his 12-for-31 shooting certainly left something to be desired despite playing hero in the final frame. It was also a quality night for Karl-Anthony Towns, who posted an 18-point, 12-rebound double-double. On the other side of the matchup, Victor Wembanyama posted a 26-point, 12-board outing of his own but shot just 6-for-21. While Stephon Castle scored 17, De’Aaron Fox finished with just seven points on a paltry 3-for-13 line.
Heading into Game 2, there are some numbers to note. In the regular season, these were both top-eight teams on the glass with 47.0 rebounds a game for the Spurs and 45.6 for the Knicks — with REB% marks of 52.2% and 52.1%, respectively. However, offensive rebounds have been a particular strength for New York in the postseason with a 33.5% OREB% that qualifies for third best, with San Antonio 12th at 30.7%. That doesn’t sound like much, but it matters. While the Spurs did win the battle for boards 40-39 overall and 14-10 on the offensive glass in Game 1, the Knicks have plenty of size and strength in their frontcourt and won’t be bullied out of extra possessions by Wembanyama.
It’s also worth talking about just how dominant the Knicks’ defense was in Game 1. They held the Spurs to a 36.0% FG% and 25.6% 3P%, far below the Western Conference champs’ 46.3% FG% and 32.8% 3P% marks heading into the Finals. Sure, New York’s own efficiency was held in check as well, but the Knicks were the most efficient team in the playoffs with a 50.7% FG% and 39.3% 3P% prior to the first game of this series. They’ve also been more cautious with the basketball, averaging nearly two full turnovers per game fewer than the Spurs during this run. New York won the turnover battle by four to open the series, and as we’ve seen at times in the playoffs, San Antonio’s youth does come with a lack of discipline in that department if a defense can make things tough. That’s exactly what the Knicks do.
Knicks vs. Spurs pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Spurs are a -6.5 home favorite with -245 odds on the Moneyline. The Knicks hold +200 odds of an outright win with the game total set at 216.5 points.
Betting splits show 65% of straight wagers on San Antonio to win.
It’s highly unlikely that Wembanyama is as inefficient as he was in Game 1, and the Spurs’ whole offense should see more normal output when it comes to efficiency. If the Spurs can shoot even a hair over 40% overall tonight and make a handful more shots from deep, the likelihood of choking away a fairly significant lead again remains slim. That doesn’t mean it’ll be easy to bounce back, though. The Knicks have plenty of rangy defenders and play a physical brand of basketball, plus San Antonio is shooting 4.1 percentage points worse from three-point range at home than on the road this postseason with a TS% drop of 2.1 percentage points at Frost Bank Center.
On the opposite side, Brunson’s efficiency should also somewhat improve from the 38.7% FG% seen in Game 1, but he faces a very tough test against one of the best defensive backcourts in the league. Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are menaces on that side of the ball, and driving the hoop gets even more difficult for an undersized guard against a player of Wembanyama’s size and skill in the paint. With that in mind, it’d be nice to see a little bit more from Towns in the scoring department, though OG Anunoby held up his end of the bargain with a cool 17 points to start the series. If Brunson struggles, New York will need both of those guys to make a greater impact on the offensive side of things.
These teams match up in interesting ways and there’s little doubt that they’re deserving of competing for a championship. One last thought before a top pick is that the Spurs are 21-6 straight up after a loss and 19-8-0 against the spread over that same sample, which includes the playoffs. Moreover, the Knicks may be on an unreal hot streak with 12 consecutive wins this postseason, but their overall ATS record is just 22-27-0 on the road and 9-8 as an away underdog this year. It’s tough to see San Antonio dropping two straight at home and the youthful roster will be hungry tonight.
