The Knicks became the fifth team in the last 30 years to go on the road and take Game 1 of the NBA Finals as the betting underdog. On Friday night, they’ll look to become the first team since the 1995 Rockets to win each of the first two games of the Finals as the road dog, which Houston accomplished in Orlando.
However, each of the last four times this situation has presented itself, the home favorite has rolled in Game 2 to even the series 1-1. We saw this last year when Tyrese Halliburton defeated the Thunder at the buzzer in Game 1. OKC rolled by 16 points in Game 2. The 2022 Celtics won at Golden State to open the NBA Finals, fueled by a late comeback, but lost Game 2 by 19 points. The 2013 Spurs won Game 1 in Miami, but the Heat took Game 2 by 19 points as well. All three of the favorites that lost Game 1 went on to win the series.
The 2004 Pistons also stole Game 1 in Los Angeles, but that series shook out a bit differently. The Lakers barely hung on to win Game 2 by eight points in overtime, thanks to some heroics by Kobe Bryant. It was also the Lakers’ only win of the Finals that year, with the underdog Pistons winning in just five games.
The trends pointing to the Spurs don’t stop there. Since the middle of January, San Antonio is 13-1 straight up and against the spread following a loss. But all of these trends ignore the generational run the Knicks are on right now. 14-2 in the playoffs, including 12 straight wins, 11 of them by double digits. New York has won all three games when priced as the underdog this postseason, but Friday night will mark the largest dogs the Knicks have been priced all playoffs.
Let’s breakdown some betting angles for Game 2 of the NBA Finals.
New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs (Game 2)
As I mentioned, the trends heavily point to this being a spot to trust the Spurs in Game 2. I’m going to trust those numbers early, and target San Antonio to come out playing well. The Spurs and Knicks have been the two best first quarter teams in the postseason, so there’s not really any number that points to the Spurs having an advantage specifically in the first quarter. But I do anticipate some urgency from San Antonio, particularly out of the gates.
I think the Knicks know they’ll need to take the Spurs’ best punch early, and are expecting it. But we’ve seen the Knicks claw back in big games time after time, and we’ve also seen the Spurs go up 15-0 at home in the playoffs and go on to lose the game. The Knicks have also had significant time off between each of the last two series’ they’ve played. The Spurs come off their grueling seven-game series to play Game 2 with just a day rest between games. That could play a role in which team is playing at a higher level as the game goes on. I’m most confident in San Antonio starting the game strong.
NBA Pick: Spurs 1Q -1.5 (-115)
I’m going to take this one a step further, given the price on this one at DraftKings Sports. I’m very strong on Spurs first quarter, but I give the Knicks a real chance to win this game. Every time the Knicks are supposed to slip up, they just find a way. New York is 3-0 as an underdog this postseason, and hasn’t lost since late April. Maybe this is just a team of destiny. For +650, I’m willing to dabble on the Spurs to win the first quarter and the Knicks to win the game.
NBA Pick: Spurs 1Q/Knicks Full Game (+650)
Dylan Harper was spectacular in Game 1 against the Knicks, putting up 16 points and eight rebounds in 28 minutes. In 19 games in the postseason, Harper is averaging 13.2 points and 5.5 boards, and has ripped down five or more rebounds in five straight games. With De’Aaron Fox both battling his ankle injury and ineffective at times, it would make sense to see more Harper on Friday night, given his success. I’ll take 10 points and five rebounds from the rookie at plus money.
