Last June, in Caitlin Clark’s second season in the WNBA, the Indiana Fever announced their arrival by winning the Commissioner’s Cup, and while the injured Clark didn’t play in the final, she did contribute to two league play games that helped the Fever qualify. This season, in Paige Bueckers’ second season in the WNBA, she has her Dallas Wings second in the Commissioner’s Cup standings with an opportunity to go atop them tonight.
If the Wings beat the Los Angeles Sparks on the road at 10 p.m. ET tonight by more than 14 points, they’ll climb to the top of the Commissioner’s Cup standings. Los Angeles lost by 10 points to the Las Vegas Aces in its opening game.
The Sparks should be completely healthy, as Kelsey Plum (ankle) is probable, but Dallas will be missing backup centers Awak Kuier (wrist) and Li Yueru (ankle).
The Wings are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-130 Moneyline), with the total set at 178.5 points. Los Angeles is +110 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this battle of young stars and offer a prediction.
Wings at Sparks prediction, pick
Both teams can see light at the end of the tunnel, as they finished with the two worst records in 2024 and both missed the playoffs in 2025. If the season ended today, Dallas would be the third seed behind the league’s best offense and fourth-best defense, and while the Sparks would be out of the playoff picture, they’ve still had the league’s eighth-best offense (and worst defense). For the Wings, Bueckers looks like an early MVP candidate with 18.3 points and 5.3 assists per game on 49-43-78 shooting splits, and first overall pick Azzi Fudd has had a strong rookie season as well. Meanwhile, Plum has continued to lead Los Angeles by averaging a league-best 26.8 points per game on incredible efficiency, with Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby also contributing more than 15 points per contest.
Getting downhill will be a key for both teams, but the Sparks should have an easier time doing so, given that Dallas has allowed the second-most shots per game within five feet so far this season and allowed the sixth-highest percentage. Kuier and Li’s absences could exacerbate that issue further; though neither has played many minutes, Kuier has contributed 0.6 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. Similarly, on offense, Los Angeles has done a better job getting downhill than the Wings have and finished at a higher rate, though Dallas could cut into that margin some tonight, since the Sparks have allowed the highest percentage on such looks. All in all, Los Angeles has been out-scored by 0.7 points per game within the restricted area and the Wings by 7.2 points per game.
Dallas should be able to make up some of that edge on the glass and in transition. Despite their questionable center depth, the Wings have managed to snag 51.1% of all available rebounds, just ahead of the Sparks’ 49.5%. Additionally, Dallas has been the league’s best transition team, averaging a league-high 11.7 fast break points per game, and Los Angeles has been both turnover-prone and merely average at transition defense. Additionally, the Sparks have been among the league’s most foul-prone teams, although their ability to get to the charity stripe could prove problematic especially for Alanna Smith, who’s been one of the league’s more indisciplined players.
Shooting will be a critical swing factor. Both teams have shot the ball at a roughly league-average rate, attempting the seventh- and eighth-most threes per game, respectively, but the Wings have converted at a slightly higher rate. Defensively, Dallas has done a much better job disincentivizing triples and has held shooters to a lower percentage. In the long run, I’d expect the Wings to have a slight advantage, as both Bueckers and Fudd proved themselves to be elite shooters at UConn and Arike Ogunbowale is due for some improvement, given that her 30.0% accuracy is the lowest of her career. Still, for Los Angeles, Ariel Atkins and Erica Wheeler could be in line for similar positive regression, overcoming any slight dip Plum might experience from her 48.8% mark.
Ultimately, I don’t think Dallas’s slight advantages in perimeter play and in transition quite overcome the Sparks’ massive edge on the interior. As solid as Fudd has looked, especially when on the court with Bueckers, the Wings haven’t done a good enough job stopping opponents from getting easy close-up looks, and their struggles to draw fouls could provide reprieve for Cameron Brink, whose otherwise solid sophomore season has been derailed by persistent foul trouble. In a toss-up game, I’ll take the team with the longer odds.
