We’ve got an American League East grudge match Friday night, as the Baltimore Orioles migrate north of the border to kick off a three-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.
The clubs split last week’s four-game set in Baltimore. The Blue Jays (30–33, 3rd AL East) head into the rematch after a series loss to the MLB-best Braves in Atlanta, while the Orioles (30–33, 3rd AL East) recently took two of three from the Red Sox in Boston.
Looking at the pitching probables, Baltimore right-hander Brandon Young (3–1, 3.35 ERA) and Toronto righty Trey Yesavage (2–2, 2.19 ERA) will square off once again, following the Orioles’ 6–5 epic ninth-inning comeback win on May 30.
First pitch is at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays enter as 1.5-run home favorites with -149 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Orioles are +124 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U eight runs.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Preview
Baltimore Orioles
Don’t count out the Orioles in the AL East just yet. Despite being eight games out of first, they’re slowly creeping back into contention after winning nine of their last 13 games — including a sweep of the division-best Rays, a series victory over the Yankees, and a split with the Blue Jays. Granted, those highlights all came during a homestretch at Camden Yards; Baltimore is a division-worst 11–18 on the road this season.
Driven by Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore’s lineup hovers around MLB’s top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, and xwOBA. Scoring hasn’t been an issue for the O’s this season — but preventing them certainly has.
Saddled with both an injury-riddled pitching staff and a porous defense, Baltimore sits 24th league-wide in ERA (4.63). The club will attempt to ride the hot hand of righty Brandon Young, whose advanced metrics — a 4.34 xERA and low strikeout numbers — suggest a looming regression. Still, the 27-year-old hurler posted an impressive 2.86 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP across five May starts (28.1 IP), and he twirled 6.2 frames of two-run ball with seven strikeouts in last week’s win over the Blue Jays.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays had seemingly turned a corner, recently winning eight of 10 games, highlighted by a four-game split with the Yankees in the Bronx. Then their otherwise sound bullpen, primarily Jeff Hoffman, coughed up five runs in the ninth inning to seal a 6–5 loss to the Orioles on May 30. Toronto went on to drop four straight games before halting the skid — and avoiding a sweep — with Thursday’s 7–2 win over the Braves.
Offense remains at a premium for the Blue Jays, who return home ranking 23rd in wRC+, 26th in wOBA, and 28th in xwOBA. While superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continues to bolster his average, he’s currently on pace to hit only eight home runs this year.
While reeling for run support, Toronto will also be looking for bounce-back performance from budding ace Trey Yesavage. The dominant right-hander, 22, has posted an incredible 2.19 ERA (2.50 xERA) and a 1.16 WHIP in seven starts (37 IP) this season. However, walks have remained a problem and reached a crisis point in his latest start against the Orioles. Despite allowing just one run over five frames, Yesavage issued a whopping seven free passes – more than double his previous career high (3).
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Pick, Best Bet
The last time we saw Brandon Young take on Trey Yesavage, the Blue Jays led 5–1 before an ignominious bullpen collapse in the bottom of the ninth. Toronto’s arm barn is better than it has shown this season, and it should provide stronger relief this time around for Yesavage, who also seems primed for a rebound performance. Count on the reigning AL champs to strike back in Friday’s series opener at home.
