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MLB Best Bets: Top Starting Pitcher Prop Bets for Thursday 6/4/26

MLB Best Bets: Top Starting Pitcher Prop Bets for Thursday 6/4/26

Published:

By: Griffin Wong

For some sports fans, today is a quiet day, as Game 2 of the NBA Finals won’t take place until tomorrow and the World Cup won’t start until next Thursday. However, baseball fans should be happy, because with an early slate and a late slate of games, there will be near-constant baseball action all throughout the afternoon.

Baseball fans will be able to catch some of the league’s best pitchers in action. I’ve chosen three starters from tonight’s four evening games and will break down my favorite prop bet at DraftKings Sportsbook for each of them:

  • Chris Sale to Record a Win (-119): Sale has given up two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his starts and has earned eight wins in 11 starts to lead all regular starters. He and the elite defense behind him represent a bad matchup for a soft contact-reliant Toronto Blue Jays team.
  • Kai-Wei Teng 6+ Strikeouts (+106): Teng has struck out at least six batters in each of his past three starts, and he has an extremely friendly matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have struck out the second-most times this season.
  • Justin Wrobleski U2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-101): Wrobleski has given up two or fewer earned runs in seven of his nine starts this season, and the Arizona Diamondbacks have had the seventh-worst OPS across the last 30 days. Their contact-oriented philosophy is a good matchup for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ elite defense.

Top MLB SP Props

Chris Sale to Record a Win (-119)

Sale is an ageless wonder; two seasons after finally winning his first career Cy Young Award, he’s arguably been even better in 2026, pitching to a career-low 2.01 ERA across his first 11 starts, and he’s given up two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his starts while lasting at least six innings in all but two of them. In fact, he’s received the decision in all 11 starts, recording eight wins and three losses, and his Atlanta Braves have the league’s best record, going 42-20. They should be able to provide him with plenty of run support, given that they rank third in baseball in both OPS and runs this season, and the Toronto Blue Jays are opting for a bullpen game despite a mediocre bullpen.

In theory, the Blue Jays are a difficult matchup, but the reigning AL pennant winners have really struggled this season, as they’re still under .500 after losing the first two games of the series. In fact, Toronto ranks fifth-to-last in OPS, and it isn’t particularly well-suited to take advantage of Sale’s lone weakness, his 54th-percentile ground ball rate. The Blue Jays have hit grounders at the 12th-highest clip this season, which is a primary reason why they’ve struggled to generate barrels. Toronto’s contact skills should play well into Atlanta’s hands, given that it has been the league’s best fielding unit this season.

Kai-Wei Teng 6+ Strikeouts (+106)

The Taiwanese right-hander wasn’t very good as a starter with the San Francisco Giants last season, but he thrived out of the bullpen with the Houston Astros in the month and a half of the season before they converted him back to a starting role. Across his last three starts, he’s pitched to a 1.69 ERA, giving up just seven hits and three earned runs across 16.0 innings. In that span, he’s fanned 20 batters, reaching the six-strikeout threshold in each start. He also had at least six strikeouts in three of his final four starts with the Giants and would’ve ranked second in the Pacific Coast League in strikeouts per nine innings last season if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify.

Teng has an excellent matchup in the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have struck out the second-most times this season, and while Teng doesn’t typically induce many chases, the Pirates have swung at bad pitches at an above-average rate. He could struggle a bit with walks, as he ranks in just the 22nd percentile in walk rate and Pittsburgh has earned the fifth-most free passes, but he’s managed to rack up strikeouts against far less whiff-heavy teams despite high walk counts. The Pirates struck out 11 times in each of the first two games of the series, and since neither Spencer Arrighetti nor Mike Burrows lasted more than five innings, the Astros might need some length out of Teng tonight.

Justin Wrobleski U2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-101)

Wrobleski was an unsung hero for the Los Angeles Dodgers last season, pitching five scoreless innings across four World Series games despite not being on the roster in any of the previous rounds, and he’s played a larger role than expected so far this season because of Blake Snell’s and Tyler Glasnow’s injuries. He’s become a key member of the Dodgers’ rotation, making nine starts and giving up two or fewer earned runs in seven of them, including a seven-inning, one-hit outing against the Philadelphia Phillies. The southpaw has been not only good but ultra-efficient, completing the sixth inning in all but one of his starts.

He should have no trouble performing against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rank 10th-to-last in OPS this season and have been particularly cold as of late, with the seventh-worst mark in the last 30 days. The Diamondbacks aren’t well-suited to take advantage of his weaknesses, as though he ranks in just the 34th percentile in hard-hit percentage, Arizona ranks fifth-to-last in that stat. It has a very contact-oriented lineup, making it a friendly matchup against Los Angeles, which ranks third in fielding outs above average. Additionally, the Dodgers used just two relievers last night because Shohei Ohtani completed the sixth inning, so Dave Roberts can afford to pull Wrobleski at the first sign of trouble if he has to.

It’s possible to place all three bets as singles, but if you feel confident in all three, it’s also possible to parlay them all together for larger potential risk and reward.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.