Slowly but surely, the American League is getting better. At one point, there were just three AL teams with a winning record, but now, there are five. Last season, there were eight.
Two of those teams will face off this afternoon in a series finale, as the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians for a 1:35 p.m. ET battle. Cleveland won each of the first two games, perhaps exacting cross-sport revenge for the Eastern Conference Finals.
Slade Cecconi will start the series finale for the Guardians, while Carlos Rodón will get the call for the Yankees.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees prediction, preview
After falling to 18-19 in early May, Cleveland has been hot, going 18-8 in its last 26 games and closing the gap on New York to just one game. The Guardians have still struggled offensively this season, ranking just 20th in OPS, but they won the AL Central despite finishing 29th in that stat last season, so it’s clearly sufficient. They’ve enjoyed contributions from a pair of stellar rookies, as Chase DeLauter had an OPS over .900 for the first month and a half of the season and Travis Bazzana has been near that mark across their winning stretch. Plus, José Ramírez has continued to do José Ramírez things. Additionally, Cleveland has had among the league’s best pitching staffs yet again, as eight of its 11 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched have a sub-4 ERA. The Guardians’ run differential (plus-seven) suggests that some regression could be on the horizon, but they’ve over-performed in all three seasons under Steven Vogt, so maybe that speaks to his ability as a manager.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have had more resounding victories and more crushing defeats, and they’re just 6-12 in one-run games. Their run differential is the third-best in all of baseball. Once again, New York’s offense has been spectacular, as it leads the league in OPS, and three-time MVP Aaron Judge has arguably been only the third-best hitter on his own team, since Ben Rice has a 1.042 OPS and Cody Bellinger ranks second in the AL in WAR. Additionally, the Yankees’ rotation has been the third-best in baseball, and even their bullpen is on the fringes of the top 10, which is critical given that their bottom-10 relief corps in 2025 ultimately undid their title hopes. Last season’s trade deadline acquisitions Camilo Doval and David Bednar haven’t been great, but Fernando Cruz and Brent Headrick have both had the finest seasons of their careers. New York’s bullpen ERA has been 0.04 runs lower than Cleveland’s.
Unfortunately for Cleveland, it has its worst starter on the mound. Cecconi just hasn’t been able to get much going as a pro, posting at least a 4.30 ERA in each of his seasons, and 2026 (5.25 ERA) has been no exception. In fact, he’s given up at least three earned runs in seven of his 12 starts this season. Unsurprisingly, advanced numbers don’t paint such a positive picture of him; he ranks in just the 29th percentile in expected ERA and the 19th percentile in expected batting average. In particular, he’s struggled to generate either whiffs or strikeouts, and for all of the Yankees’ strengths, that’s one of their relative weaknesses. Plus, while Cecconi has done a good job limiting walks and hard hits overall, he still has a below-median barrel rate, and New York finds the barrel at the league’s highest frequency. The splits are mixed; Cecconi has been better on the road, but the Yankees have been far more effective at home, and given the warm and clear conditions in the Bronx, the game could be ripe for an offensive explosion.
Meanwhile, Rodón only made his season debut on May 10 after offseason elbow surgery, but he’s slowly looked more comfortable, putting up his best outing yet (a six-inning, four-hit, one-run affair) in his most recent affair. All in all, advanced numbers are kind to him, as he ranks in the 76th percentile in expected ERA and the 98th percentile in expected batting average. He’s also done an excellent job limiting hard liners, ranking in the top decile in both hard-hit rate and ground ball rate and in the 66th percentile in barrel rate. Rodón’s main concern is that he’s issued a ton of walks, an issue that he struggled with last season as well, and the Guardians have earned the fourth-most free passes. Between his walk-prone nature and Cleveland’s bat-to-ball skills, it’s possible that he’ll deal with more traffic on the bases than usual, but I still expect five solid innings, especially given that he’s been better at home in each season of his tenure with New York.
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees pick, best bet
Best Bet: New York Yankees Race to 3 Runs (-125)
I trust both teams’ bullpens to hold down the fort once the starters exit the game, but it’s far more likely that the Yankees’ offense hangs at least three runs on Cecconi than the Guardians’ offense to get to Rodón. Cecconi isn’t a great pitcher as is, but it’s a particularly kind matchup for New York.
Strong Lean: Cody Bellinger 1+ RBI’s (+146)
Bellinger will hit fourth behind Trent Grisham, Rice, and Paul Goldschmidt, and all three hitters ahead of him either have an elite walk rate (Grisham), a top-septile expected batting average (Goldschmidt), or both (Rice). He also has a .299 xBA and a .502 xSLG against right-handed four-seam fastballs this season, and he’s had at least one RBI in three of his last four games.
