The Athletics reached Wrigley Field below .500 and can leave Thursday with a sweep and a pulse. Oakland won Tuesday 2-1 behind Gage Jump, Nick Kurtz, and two scoreless relief innings. Wednesday carried more weight. The Athletics erased a 4-2 eighth-inning deficit, then Kurtz singled home the winning run in the 10th. Oakland is now 30-31 and sitting inside the early American League Wild Card picture. Chicago is 32-30 after three straight losses and eight consecutive defeats at Wrigley Field. The Cubs finally produced power Wednesday, receiving home runs from Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki. They still could not protect a late lead. A warm night with the wind charging out places even greater strain on a shaken pitching staff. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and the Athletics.
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Cubs vs. Athletics prediction, preview
J.T. Ginn gives Oakland the steadier opening assignment. He enters 3-3 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 52 strikeouts. Since joining the rotation April 10, Ginn owns a 2.56 ERA across 10 starts. The Athletics have won seven of those games. His last five starts have produced a 1.48 ERA across 30 1/3 innings, including six shutout innings against the Yankees. More importantly for Wrigley Field, Ginn has limited the quality of contact reaching the air. He has allowed an 87.4 mph average exit velocity, 35.6% hard-hit rate, and 6.3% barrel rate. Shota Imanaga arrives with the opposite recent shape. His season ERA has risen to 4.37, he posted a 5.80 ERA in May, and he allowed three home runs against St. Louis in his last start.
Kurtz has already changed both games of this series. He homered Tuesday to provide the decisive run, then delivered Wednesday’s winning single in extra innings. He is batting .288 with 11 homers, 43 RBI, and a .947 OPS. Over his last 20 games, Kurtz is hitting .348 with six homers, 22 RBI, and 16 runs scored. That form lands directly on Imanaga’s current weakness: lifted, authoritative contact that leaves the park. Shea Langeliers adds the cleaner platoon threat, batting .310 with four home runs against left-handed pitching this season. Tyler Soderstrom tied Wednesday’s game with an eighth-inning single, while Colby Thomas preceded him with a 426-foot pinch-hit homer. Oakland is missing Jacob Wilson, though its central damage bats have repeatedly found the swing that determines the game.
Chicago’s response is concentrated in the side of Ginn’s platoon split that matters most tonight. Right-handed hitters have managed only a .575 OPS against him, while left-handed hitters have produced an .881 OPS and three of the four home runs he has allowed. Michael Busch carries a .344 wOBA and .347 xwOBA, supported by an 11.6% barrel rate, and has punished right-handed pitching over the last 30 days at .313/.482/.547 with four homers and 15 RBI. Ian Happ owns a .359 wOBA, .343 xwOBA, 90.6 mph average exit velocity, and 15.2% barrel rate, then doubled twice Wednesday. Pete Crow-Armstrong has a .345 xwOBA, 91.8 mph exit velocity, and 50.3% hard-hit rate, with two homers in his last four games. Seiya Suzuki added Wednesday’s other homer and carries an 18.3-degree average launch angle. Ginn has the better overall contact profile, though Busch, Happ, Crow-Armstrong, and Suzuki form an exact weather-assisted threat against his only vulnerable split.
Athletics vs. Cubs pick, best bet
The late innings remove any illusion of comfort. Chicago used seven relievers Wednesday after Colin Rea exited in the sixth, then watched Caleb Thielbar surrender three hits, two runs, and Colby Thomas’ 426-foot homer while protecting a 4-2 lead. The Cubs’ larger pitching collapse has already been extensive: during their recent 10-game skid, the staff posted a 6.18 ERA, 1.477 WHIP, and 5.32 FIP while allowing 19 homers across 87 1/3 innings. Their starters carried an 8.46 ERA with 14 homers allowed in 50 innings during that run. Oakland also paid for Wednesday’s comeback, using six relievers after Jeffrey Springs departed in the fourth, with Hogan Harris and Justin Sterner working consecutive nights. Sterner owns a 4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 23-to-7 strikeout-to-walk line across 22 1/3 innings. Ginn’s recent length can keep Oakland from exposing that taxed relief group too early. With 84-degree weather and a 14 mph wind blowing out, every bullpen mistake becomes a potential scoring event.
Chicago’s -143 moneyline asks Imanaga and an exhausted home skid to outperform the steadier current starter. Over 10.5 at -103 respects the conditions, though it requires Ginn’s contact management to collapse more fully. Athletics alternate team total over 5.5 at +115 is tempting, yet it makes one offense satisfy the wager alone. Athletics first-five moneyline at +105 isolates the starting-pitcher advantage, but it forfeits another chance against Chicago’s exposed relief structure. Oakland has already won a tight pitching game and a bullpen game in this series. Now it sends its best current starter against a left-hander allowing precisely the damage Wrigley rewards. Kurtz is delivering the signature swings, and Langeliers gives Oakland a powerful right-handed answer behind him.
Best bet: Athletics moneyline (+115).
Predicted score: Athletics 7, Cubs 5.
Best bet: Athletics (+115) at Cubs
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