The Cardinals did enough Tuesday to make the loss linger. They rapped 13 hits, pushed Texas into tense innings, tied the game in the seventh, and still walked off Busch Stadium with a 7-4 defeat. St. Louis went 3-for-14 with runners in scoring position and stranded 11, then watched Joc Pederson break the tie in a three-run Rangers ninth. Texas, now 30-31, has won five straight and can sweep a Cardinals club that remains 31-28 despite losing seven of nine. The Rangers have done it while Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford work back through rehab assignments. St. Louis has not been overmatched for two nights. It has simply lost every important confrontation after doing enough to win some of them. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Texas Rangers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cardinals vs. Rangers prediction, preview
MacKenzie Gore gives Texas an advantage at the front of this game, and his recent work has quieted the concern from a brief injury interruption. Gore is 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 65 strikeouts in 61.1 innings, with a .289 wOBA and .315 xwOBA allowed. Since leaving a start in Colorado with lat tightness, he has allowed one earned run and five hits across 12.1 innings against the Angels and Royals. The warning is his 27 walks, because St. Louis has too many hitters capable of punishing free traffic. Andre Pallante carries a 5-4 record, 4.19 ERA, and 1.34 WHIP over 58 innings, with cleaner contact indicators than his ERA suggests: a .311 xwOBA, 87.9 mph average exit velocity, 36.5% hard-hit rate, and 7.3% barrel rate allowed. Still, the Cubs found eight hits and four earned runs in three innings against him Friday. Texas gets first claim on control of the game, without needing Pallante to collapse.
Pederson has put his hands on both Texas wins in this series, and Pallante presents the same pitches he has punished all season. Pederson is batting .253/.368/.460 overall, but he enters Wednesday at .346/.452/.885 with four home runs over his last seven games. Against St. Louis, he is 4-for-7 with two doubles, three RBI, a walk, a hit-by-pitch, and Tuesday’s go-ahead ninth-inning single. Pallante leans on his four-seamer and slider for nearly 60% of his pitches. Pederson owns a .432 wOBA against four-seamers and a .452 mark against sliders, with hard-hit rates above 58% against both. Josh Jung sits behind him with a .308/.362/.481 season line, then carries a .400 wOBA against four-seamers and a .378 wOBA against sliders. He followed Pederson’s winning hit with an RBI single Tuesday. Ezequiel Duran has driven in 17 runs over his last 15 games, while Brandon Nimmo’s .381 xwOBA and 51.4% hard-hit rate leave more damage in the middle of this order than his recent box scores show.
That Texas case still has to survive a Cardinals lineup that has been wasteful rather than quiet. Jordan Walker has slumped to 5-for-28 over his last seven games, yet his full body of work remains frightening: .283/.348/.534, 15 home runs, a .383 wOBA, 94.2 mph average exit velocity, 52.2% hard-hit rate, and 14.5% barrel rate. He drove in the tying run Tuesday, and Gore’s four-seam-heavy approach gives Walker pitches he can punish before the curveball becomes the putaway weapon. Iván Herrera owns a .366 xwOBA and has posted a .354 OBP over his last 15 games. JJ Wetherholt is hitting .321 over his last seven, has struck out only twice in that stretch, and carries a .434 xwOBA against four-seamers. Nelson Velázquez also looms as a right-handed answer against Gore after homering off left-hander Shota Imanaga in his recent lefty-facing assignment. St. Louis has the hitters to make Gore pay for loose command. What it has lacked in this series is the swing that ends the argument.
Rangers vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
Tuesday’s ninth inning matters because it exposed where these teams stand once the starters are gone. Texas asked Jalen Beeks to enter a tied game with runners on the corners and nobody out in the seventh; he struck out two and escaped. Beeks, Cal Quantrill, and Jakob Junis combined for three scoreless innings with two hits allowed and zero walks. Junis has worked on consecutive nights, but Jacob Latz rested Tuesday after closing Monday’s win. St. Louis has less comfort available. Riley O’Brien threw 32 pitches while allowing three ninth-inning runs Tuesday, and George Soriano has pitched in both games of the series. Ryne Stanek is the fresher late option, though his ERA sits at 5.56. The weather will not rescue or ruin either pitching staff: Busch Stadium should sit near 82 degrees at first pitch, with a light crosswind rather than a strong push toward the fences. With Seager and Langford still absent, Texas may not overpower St. Louis. It can still win the last six outs more cleanly.
The best bet is Texas Rangers moneyline at -102, playable to -115. The Rangers team total over 4.5 at +120 requires a fifth run from an order still waiting on Seager and Langford, even against a St. Louis bullpen carrying fresh bruises. Under 8 at -115 runs directly into the Cardinals’ ability to stack baserunners and the late-inning damage already appearing in this series. Rangers first-five moneyline at -110 costs more than the full-game side while removing Texas’ best late advantage. Gore is pitching well enough to take the ball with confidence, Pederson and Jung line up cleanly with Pallante’s most frequent offerings, and the Cardinals have spent two nights losing the innings that decide close games. What can beat this ticket is Gore walking into the heart of the order before Walker or Velázquez catches a fastball with runners aboard.
Final score projection: Rangers 5, Cardinals 3.
Best bet: Rangers (+100) at Cardinals
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