Over the last few weeks, the Philadelphia Phillies have found their form and managed to get above the .500 mark. Now, they’re looking to rise in the division standings and have the chance to tack on another win against a San Diego Padres group that’s dropped three straight contests. After Philly took game one of this series, the set continues this evening at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for today’s Padres vs. Phillies matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Phillies prediction, preview
San Diego Padres
The Padres have a 32-27 record that places them second in the NL West, obviously chasing the L.A. Dodgers for first. However, it’s not all sunshine in San Diego. The club is only 3-7 over its last 10 games and just dropped three straight, plus, a -7 run differential isn’t exactly encouraging. The Friars’ 3.88 runs per game are second fewest of any team and a .655 OPS is also second-to-last. They have a full slash line of .218/.293/.655 that includes the lowest batting average in baseball, too. A .145 ISO is also on the low end, though the team has 61 homers and sits in the middle of the pack there. The bigger issue is a 23.4% K% that’s on the high end with a low 0.38 BB/K ratio. The arms have carried the team plenty behind an elite bullpen that boasts a 3.07 ERA (third best), a 1.20 WHIP and a 15.6% K-BB%. The relivers are fifth in LOB% at 75.8% as well.
As for the starter, it’s RHP Walker Buehler on the mound today with a 3-3 record in 11 starts. He has a 4.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 43 strikeouts in 51.2 IP. Buehler has outperformed his xBA, which falls in the 13th percentile, but he has been above average at forcing ground balls.
Philadelphia Phillies
Reports of the Phillies’ demise were greatly exaggerated as the club has pushed to 31-29, good for second in the NL East behind the MLB-best Atlanta Braves. Philly has taken six of its last 10 games but still has a total run differential of -25. The fun part about tonight is that it turns out neither offense is great, with the Phils posting an identical 3.88 runs per game to their opponent. The team’s OPS of .675 is third-to-last on a .225/.294/.381 slash line, but a .156 ISO is respectable and they’ve bashed 73 homers, ninth most. However, they’re also third-to-last in BB/K ratio at 0.35 with a low BB% and a 22.3% K%. The Phillies’ arms have done much of the heavy lifting, but we’ll focus on the bullpen in particular here. They’re 13th in ERA at 3.87 and have a 1.28 WHIP, while a 17.5% K-BB% ranks second in the MLB.
Their own starter is one of the best in baseball right now. LHP Cristopher Sanchez looks like a Cy Young candidate with a 6-2 record in 12 games and incredible stats. He has a 1.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 95 Ks across 79.1 IP. There’s a lot of red on his Baseball Savant page, but the most important metrics to note are 90th-percentile grades or better in chase and whiff rate along with K%, BB% and ground ball rate. He’s dealing.
Padres vs. Phillies pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Phillies as -219 Moneyline favorites at home today. The Padres come in with +179 odds to win outright. The total sits at 7.5 combined runs between these two teams.
Best Bet: Cristopher Sanchez under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-115)
This pick here was a very easy choice. Sanchez is easily one of the top arms in the game at the moment based on a variety of metrics, but let’s just look at how hot he was in May as he earned pitcher of the month honors. He earned four wins in five games, allowing zero earned runs over the course of 39.0 IP. That included just 25 hits allowed, three walks and 45 punchouts. Wowzers. The guy is absolutely killing it at the moment and has given up one or fewer earned runs in eight of his starts this year so far. Today, he gets a lineup that just can’t put the wood on the ball and strikes out at a slightly higher-than-average rate. It’s a recipe for success, so I’m surprised this line isn’t listed at shorter odds than -115.
