The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the best stories in baseball this season, finally looking like a real team capable of making a postseason appearance. They ride a four-game winning streak into night two of a three-game set against the Houston Astros down at Daikin Park. Tonight’s matchup brings extra intrigue thanks to the pitching matchup as well, pitting Paul Skenes against a resurgent Spencer Arrighetti.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Pirates vs. Astros matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Astros prediction, preview
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh baseball is officially back on the menu this year. The Pirates sit second in the NL Central at 33-28 and are 7-3 across their last 10 games, also taking four straight over that span. Their run differential of +35 is also good for fourth in all of the MLB, which is hardly a trend you could’ve predicted prior to the season’s start. They’re averaging 5.10 runs per game and are fourth in OPS at .740, trailing only the Dodgers, Yankees and Braves. Wow. While Pittsburgh’s .147 ISO isn’t the most impressive, the group has a slash line of .255/.338/.402 and the best BABIP in baseball at .314. An 0.43 BB/K ratio also sits just outside the top 10 and the Pirates’ 71 homers are 11th most. The bullpen is also relatively average with a 4.08 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and a 12.6% K-BB%.
The starter, however, needs no introduction. RHP Paul Skenes is 6-5 across 12 starts with a 2.89 ERA, an 0.86 WHIP and 75 strikeouts in 65.1 IP. It’s a down year for him in terms of run suppression, but his overall numbers remain elite and his Baseball Savant page is a work of art. He grades out in the upper 1/5 of all pitchers just about every underlying metric possible, save for ground ball rate and whiff rate.
Houston Astros
It’s been quite the season for the Astros, but the last few weeks have yielded better results than they’d seen over much of the campaign. They’re now 27-25 but have gone 6-4 over their last 10 games, though dropping their last two does stymie whatever little progress they’d made. A run differential of -37 shows just how poor the pitching has been this year, especially in light of an offense producing 4.47 runs per game. Houston’s OPS of .726 ranks seventh in the MLB on a .243/.318/.408 slash line, garnering a .164 ISO with 80 homers, sixth most. The Astros are average in terms of plate approach with an 0.41 BB/K ratio as well, but they’re notably dead last in speed score on the basepaths. Pitching has been a major weakness all year and the bullpen’s overall numbers sit at a 5.22 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and an 8.5% K-BB%. However, those same stats come in at 3.69, 1.18 and 10.4% over the last 30 days, so there’s been progress on that front.
The top arm in this rotation as of late is RHP Spencer Arrighetti, who’s 7-1 in eight starts. He takes the mound tonight with a miniscule 1.34 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and 43 punchouts in 47.0 IP. He keeps exit velocity and hard-hit balls to a minimum, but has far overperformed a 4.69 xERA and struggles with his control at a 13.1% BB%.
Pirates vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Pirates as -156 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight. The Astros come in with +129 odds to win outright. The total sits at eight combined runs between these two teams.
Best Bet: Spencer Arrighetti & Paul Skenes four or fewer combined earned runs (-130)
This combined player prop bet feels like a layup of sorts given the two hurlers on the mound to start this game. Yes, both of these offenses are capable of scoring plenty, but look at the numbers for Skenes and Arrighetti. The former is a Cy Young winner and remains one of the best pure arm talents the game has ever seen. Skenes has allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his 12 starts this season and has a miniscule WHIP, keeping runners off the basepaths. Arrighetti doesn’t have near the pedigree, but he does have great numbers of his own with fewer than two earned runs in all but one of his eight starts this year. Plus, he had an awesome 0.93 ERA in May over the course of five appearances. If he can keep up this level of play, these pitchers should keep the overall picture to four or fewer earned runs while they’re in for the combo prop.
