The Seattle Storm were the pioneers, winning the inaugural edition of the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup in 2021, but they haven’t yet made it back to the final since. They face a tough test if they want to break that drought in 2026, as after getting blown out by the Dallas Wings on Monday, they sit second-to-last in the Western Conference standings with an 0-1 Cup record and a lopsided point differential. Since the WNBA switched the competition to its current format in 2024, no team has advanced to the championship game with multiple losses.
As a result, Seattle’s back is already up against the wall. It’ll play its second game of Cup action tonight at 10:10 p.m. ET, when it hosts the Phoenix Mercury. Phoenix suffered an even more lopsided defeat in its opening game, losing by 34 points to the Minnesota Lynx, so it is feeling the pressure too.
The Mercury are 6.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-258 Moneyline), with the total set at 161.5 points. The Storm are +210 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this do-or-die West Coast clash and offer a prediction.
Mercury at Storm prediction, pick
Both teams made the playoffs in 2025, as Phoenix made it all the way to the WNBA Finals and Seattle lost in the first round, but neither team looks likely to make it there in 2026. Through the first 10 games of the season, the Storm are 3-7 and the Mercury 2-8, as each team overhauled its roster in the offseason. Satou Sabally left Phoenix in the offseason to join the New York Liberty, and key reserve Sami Whitcomb suffered a knee injury in the offseason. Meanwhile, Seattle lost Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins in free agency, and Ezi Magbegor has yet to make her season debut with a foot injury. Dominique Malonga is still in concussion protocol nearly three weeks after suffering the injury. Both teams rank in the bottom five in both offensive and net rating, though at least the Storm have had a top-five defense.
Neither team has been very good in the interior, as both have been out-scored in the paint, but Seattle has been out-scored by a wider margin than the Mercury have. Both teams have been pretty strong defensively, allowing the fourth- and fifth-fewest shots per game in the restricted area and holding opponents to a below-average percentage, but neither team has been able to get downhill or finish particularly well. I trust Phoenix more in the long run, though; Alyssa Thomas has been an elite high-volume finisher for much of her career, and Kahleah Copper is also a pretty active driver. The Storm’s lone elite finisher, Malonga, remains out, and every player who averaged at least one layup attempt per game for Seattle last season is now off the roster.
Both teams have been atrocious on the glass, but the Mercury should have an edge, as they rank fourth-to-last in rebounding percentage and the Storm second-to-last, which even Awa Fam’s debut hasn’t helped. Additionally, Phoenix has has been better in all aspects of the transition game, and it should be able to both take better care of the ball and rack up more steals now that starting point guard Monique Akoa Makani is back in the lineup. The Mercury have also been among the league’s more disciplined teams while drawing among the most fouls, and given Stefanie Dolson’s and Fam’s foul issues this season and Seattle’s lack of depth at center, that could be a huge problem down the stretch.
Neither team relies heavily on its shooting, and that’s just as well, given that both teams have a below-median three-point percentage this season. Of the two, though, Phoenix is more due for a bounce-back, as while Natisha Heideman and rookie Flau’jae Johnson have both demonstrated more accurate shooting in their past, it’s even more inconceivable that Kahleah Copper and DeWanna Bonner, both of whom made more than one-third of their triples last season, continue to connect at a rate below 20%. Akoa Makani’s 45.5% mark is sustainable, given that she shot 40% as a rookie last season, and Jovana Nogić was a 40% shooter in college. The Mercury have also allowed opponents to connect on 39.8% of their threes, which is unsustainable given how many of those triples have come from at least 25 feet.
There aren’t many matchups in which one team has an advantage in every single facet of the game, but that’s the case here. Home court advantage could matter, as the Storm have a slightly positive net rating in their home games this season, but Phoenix has also been better on the road. Though the Mercury have lost six straight games, they’ve had the difficult test of facing the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx twice each, while Seattle has had a friendlier schedule. The Storm should be more competitive once Malonga and Magbegor come back, but they might already be in too deep a hole to make the playoffs.
