Bring on the Cup! Wednesday’s WNBA Commissioner’s Cup slate features two teams trending in very different directions offensively. The Liberty enter as 8.5-point favorites, but recent form suggests this matchup may be tighter than the line implies.
Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET tonight, with the total sitting at 172.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s get into it!
Top WNBA Player Props
Marina Mabrey Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-140): Mabrey has made three triples in each of her last three games. She is also shooting an average of 5.6 three-pointers per game.
Brittney Sykes 19+ Points (-121): Sykes is averaging 19.9 points per game and has hit 19+ four times this season.
Liberty vs. Tempo Preview
The Liberty are still the betting favorites to win the championship, but they haven’t looked like that team lately. New York has failed to score more than 85 points in six straight games, and the offense that looked unstoppable early in the season has cooled off considerably. Over their last three games, the Liberty rank just eighth in offensive rating, which is not exactly what you’d expect from a roster this talented.
Breanna Stewart has struggled recently, shooting 38.2% from the field over her last two games, while Sabrina Ionescu has appeared in just one game all season due to injury. The good news? Jonquel Jones continues to provide stability inside with two double-doubles over her last three games, and rookie Pauline Astier has been one of the biggest surprises in the league, stepping into a major role and delivering multiple 20-point performances.
Toronto, meanwhile, is quietly playing some of its best basketball of the season. The Tempo have won back-to-back games against Chicago and Seattle while averaging nearly 90 points per game on the year. Brittney Sykes continues to lead the offense at 19.9 points per game, Marina Mabrey remains a reliable scoring threat, and rookie Kiki Rice has been incredibly steady, averaging 15.2 points and 6.4 rebounds over her last five games while shooting better than 55% from the field.
One of the more fun storylines tonight comes in the frontcourt, where sisters Satou Sabally and Nyara Sabally could find themselves sharing the floor. It’s not going to decide the game, but it’s a cool subplot in an important Commissioner’s Cup matchup.
The number that stands out most for Toronto is its perimeter defense. The Tempo are holding opponents to just 31.2% from three, fourth-best in the league. That’s particularly relevant against a Liberty team that still leans heavily on three-point shooting to generate offense.
Liberty vs. Tempo Pick
New York is still the better team, but the Liberty haven’t looked like a team capable of consistently covering big numbers lately. Toronto is playing with confidence, and the spread feels a little too large.
Best Bet: Toronto Tempo +8.5
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