There is a fascinating French Open semi-final between Maja Chwalinska and Diana Shnaider. These are two players, both achieving by far the best performances of their careers at this tournament. Neither player had ever even made a major quarter-final prior to Roland-Garros 2026; now one of them will become a major finalist.
Here is my pick, prediction and best bet on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s semi-final match between Maja Chwalinska and Diana Shnaider.
Maja Chwalinska vs. Diana Shnaider Preview
Maja Chwalinska Preview
Up to this point in her career, Maja Chwalinska’s career earnings are $861,237. Just by getting to this semi-final, Chwalinska is making $869,958. Even if Chwalinska loses this match, she will have doubled her career earnings in one tournament. This is truly one of the most remarkable Cinderella runs the sport has ever seen. Before this tournament, Chwalinska had only won one match in the main draw of a major. Including this year’s Australian Open, Chwalinska had not made it out of the qualifiers at 12 of her 14 career Grand Slam appearances. She lost once in the first round at the Australian Open, and her lone major win came in the first round of Wimbledon in 2022.
The 24-year-old entered this tournament as the No. 114 player in the world. She has not had an overly tough draw, but she has been an underdog every step of the way. While a result like this was never expected, Maja Chwalinska is a clay specialist. Between singles and doubles, she has made WTA 125 finals in her career, and all eight of those came on clay. While the competition level was not very high, she did just win a WTA 125 title in Oeiras, Portugal. Chwalinska is hoping this fairy tale can continue for just two more matches.
Diana Shnaider Preview
While Diana Shanaider’s run has not been as improbable as Maja Chwalinska’s, this has still been a career-defining tournament for her. While she was not as inexperienced or lowly-ranked as Chwalinska, Shnaider had to face Aryna Sabalenka on her way to this semi-final. Shanaider took down Madison Keys in the fourth round to make her first-ever Grand Slam quarter-final. That already seemed like a worthwhile achievement, and her tournament would likely come to an end against the No. 1 player in the world. However, Shnaider pulled off the biggest win of her career and took down Sabalenka.
While this is the biggest achievement of Diana Shnaider’s career in singles, she has been a top doubles player in the world for the past couple of years. Her doubles partner is Mirra Andreeva, who is in the other semi-final on the other side of this bracket. It would be remarkable to see these two doubles partners face each other in singles for a major title. That being said, those two have been a great doubles pairing since joining up. They have an incredible history here at Roland-Garros, where they won the silver medal in the 2024 Paris Olympics. They also just won the title on clay in Rome a few weeks ago. Shnaider has big-match experience, but has always had her partner by her side in those big matches. Now, she needs to do it herself.
Maja Chwalinska vs. Diana Shnaider Best Bet
My best bet is for this match to go over 2.5 sets. Ultimately, Diana Shnaider would be my pick to win in that third set. However, I can’t see Maja Chwalinska going down without a fight. This run has not been a fluke for Chwalinska; she is playing legitimately excellent tennis. She has won four of her five matches in two sets, with many of those sets being 6-0, 6-1, or 6-2. Shnaider is more talented and has more experience on a big stage like this, so the third-set pressure should favor her. However, this should be a close battle between two players desperate to seize the biggest moment of their careers.
