The Cubs still have the better record, though the distance between these clubs has narrowed into a matter of old receipts. Chicago is 32-29 after opening the season 27-12, a collapse sharpened by a 5-17 run and Tuesday’s 2-1 loss at Wrigley Field. The Athletics are 29-31, working through a torn-up rotation with Luis Severino and Aaron Civale unavailable, yet they took the series opener behind seven innings from Gage Jump, a go-ahead single from Zack Gelof, and another home run from Nick Kurtz. Chicago’s brief offensive awakening against Pittsburgh and St. Louis has receded quickly: the Cubs have scored one run in each of their last two games, and Tuesday ended with 17 consecutive hitters retired after an early scoring chance. A home favorite whose offense keeps losing entire stretches of the night is giving an underdog a remarkably manageable path. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and the Athletics.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cubs vs. Athletics prediction, preview
Jeffrey Springs enters with blemishes. He is 3-6 with a 4.07 ERA and has allowed 19 earned runs over his last 36 2/3 innings, including enough home-run contact to make Ian Happ and Pete Crow-Armstrong central threats Wednesday. His underlying contact management still separates him sharply from Colin Rea. Springs has permitted an 87.3 mph average exit velocity, 34.3% hard-hit rate, and .311 xwOBA, supporting a 3.87 xERA. Rea owns a 4.70 ERA with a 5.14 xERA, while opponents have reached him for a .353 xwOBA, 91.2 mph average exit velocity, 44.3% hard-hit rate, and 11.9% barrel rate. His recent seven-appearance sample has been even shakier: a 5.86 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 41 hits, 23 earned runs, and 15 walks over 35 1/3 innings. One starter is vulnerable to a mistake leaving the park; the other is consistently producing the traffic and impact contact that build losing innings.
Kurtz gives the Athletics the premier hitter-pitcher collision on the board. He opened this series with his 11th home run one day after being named American League Player of the Month for May, when he led the majors with 26 RBI. His broader profile carries the same violence: a .415 wOBA, .398 xwOBA, .510 xSLG, 94.4 mph average exit velocity, 58.6% hard-hit rate, 18.8% barrel rate, and 20.5% walk rate. Rea throws his four-seam fastball 41.1% of the time; Kurtz has destroyed four-seamers for a .617 slugging percentage, .471 xwOBA, and 68.6% hard-hit rate. Tyler Soderstrom adds the second left-handed pressure point after batting .394 with a 1.179 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns a .416 xwOBA against four-seamers and a .402 xwOBA against sliders, the two pitches accounting for 53.1% of Rea’s usage. With Shea Langeliers supplying a .390 xwOBA and 14.8% barrel rate, Rea’s difficult portion of the order extends beyond pitching around Kurtz.
Chicago has enough dangerous contact to punish a modest Springs night. Happ has paired a .341 xwOBA with a 90.3 mph average exit velocity and 15.7% barrel rate, then supplied five RBI in the win that finally ended the Cubs’ 10-game losing streak. Crow-Armstrong’s improved damage is also credible: a .346 xwOBA, 91.8 mph average exit velocity, and 50.3% hard-hit rate, followed recently by a four-hit game and a 444-foot home run against St. Louis. The current lineup has struggled to build around those bursts. Seiya Suzuki is batting .184/.205/.211 with a .416 OPS and no home runs over his last 10 games. Alex Bregman has been steadier at .279/.326/.395 during that stretch, though his 5.6% barrel rate supplies limited avalanche potential. The Cubs have shown isolated eruptions rather than dependable offensive flow, and Springs’ road work—a 3.60 ERA and .290 wOBA allowed in 30 innings—gives the Athletics a capable answer to the handful of bats carrying Chicago’s damage threat.
Athletics vs. Cubs pick, best bet
The scoring markets invite temptation because Rea’s matchup is plainly combustible. The Athletics’ team total over 4.5 at +115 requires the fifth run against a Chicago bullpen capable of shortening an early deficit. The Athletics’ first-five team total over 2.5 at +120 has teeth because Rea’s second-time-through profile has collapsed to a .409 wOBA and 6.23 ERA, precisely when Kurtz and Soderstrom should see him again. That window still demands Oakland convert quickly. The full-game over at 8.5 requires Chicago to restore sustained offense against a starter yielding far gentler contact, with a roughly 10 mph Wrigley wind offering no clear launchpad. Athletics moneyline (+113) takes the most sturdy parts of the matchup—Springs’ superior contact suppression, Rea’s damage profile, and Oakland’s left-handed power alignment—without assigning an unnecessary run threshold.
Best bet: Athletics moneyline (+113). Chicago’s April surge continues to shape the price, while its present lineup has spent three weeks giving away innings. Rea is conceding impact contact at exactly the wrong time to meet Kurtz, whose power profile has become one of the most severe in baseball, with Soderstrom and Langeliers capable of turning a cautious pitching plan into traffic anyway. Springs must manage Happ and Crow-Armstrong, the two Chicago bats most capable of breaking this angle with one swing, and the Athletics have usable late-inning arms after a relatively light bullpen workload Tuesday. At plus money, the underdog brings the sharper starting-pitcher profile, the hottest damage bat, and the more coherent route to scoring.
Projected score: Athletics 5, Cubs 3.
Best bet: Athletics (+115) at Cubs
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
