Atlanta has made June feel like an extension of its authority. The Braves enter Wednesday at 41-20, owners of baseball’s best record, after taking Tuesday’s opener 4-3. Matt Olson broke the tie with his 17th home run, while Ozzie Albies supplied two RBI. Ronald Acuña Jr. arrived in the series after a four-game homer streak, including five bombs during Atlanta’s previous four games. Toronto’s picture is less comfortable at 29-32 and three consecutive losses, although the offense has remained present. The Blue Jays scored 13 runs during that skid, collected nine hits Tuesday, and lost the opener after going 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position. Their problem has been finishing innings, rather than finding them. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Atlanta Braves and the Toronto Blue Jays.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Braves vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
Patrick Corbin has given Toronto useful rotation stability. Through 10 starts, the veteran left-hander owns a 3.65 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts. He has allowed only two earned runs across his last 11 innings, including six innings of one-run baseball against Pittsburgh. Corbin has also surrendered only 0.91 HR/9, reducing the immediate appeal of Atlanta’s team total. Grant Holmes brings a far more inviting damage profile for Toronto. His 3.95 ERA sits above a 5.06 FIP, with a 10.2% walk rate and 1.74 HR/9 across 57 innings. Hitters have produced a 90.3 mph average exit velocity, 44.6% hard-hit rate, 9.7% barrel rate, and .327 xwOBA against him. Holmes has allowed four home runs across his last two starts, despite striking out 15 hitters during those outings.
Atlanta’s stars can still change a game in four plate appearances. Acuña carries a .397 xwOBA, 45.7% hard-hit rate, and 14.7% barrel rate, with five home runs across his last five games. Olson enters with a .385 wOBA, 93.5 mph average exit velocity, 51.4% hard-hit rate, and 15.2% barrel rate. He has two home runs during his current five-game rebound. Yet Corbin catches an Atlanta order with a thinner tail than Tuesday’s version. Dominic Smith, Mike Yastrzemski, and Jorge Mateo are absent from the starting lineup. Austin Riley has hit .194 across his last 10 games and has recorded zero total bases across his last five. Toronto’s middle is better positioned for this specific pitching matchup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has reached a .361 xwOBA with a 90.5 mph average exit velocity, while batting .382 across his last 10 games. Jesús Sánchez returns to bat cleanup after his wrist contusion, carrying a .341 xwOBA, 91.2 mph average exit velocity, and 45.9% hard-hit rate. Kazuma Okamoto, fresh off Tuesday’s homer, owns 13 home runs, a 92.7 mph average exit velocity, 53.3% hard-hit rate, and 15.3% barrel rate.
Toronto’s recent results create the strongest argument against backing its offense. The Jays have lost three straight, missed every scoring chance with runners in position Tuesday, and may eventually confront Atlanta’s sharpest relief pairing. Robert Suarez owns a 0.68 ERA, while Raisel Iglesias holds a 0.96 ERA and has converted 29 consecutive save opportunities. Holmes still offers Toronto an earlier opening too pronounced to dismiss. Left-handed hitters have reached him for 1.91 HR/9 and a 5.24 FIP. His second trip through an order has been worse: opponents are batting .302, his WHIP rises to 1.71, and his home-run rate balloons to 3.43 per nine innings. Nathan Lukes, Yohendrick Piñango, Guerrero, Sánchez, and Daulton Varsho give Toronto five left-handed swings. Okamoto sits behind them as the club’s best current answer to Holmes’ mistake pitches.
Blue Jays vs. Braves pick, best bet
The full-game over carries appeal at eight runs, particularly with both lineups featuring elite top-end power. Toronto’s bullpen makes that wager more complicated. Louis Varland owns a 0.29 ERA, Tyler Rogers carries a 2.36 ERA with an extreme ground-ball profile, and both were preserved Tuesday. Corbin’s recent control also makes Atlanta’s over 4.5 team total less attractive than its reputation suggests. The Blue Jays have scored at least four runs in three of their last five games, with Guerrero supplying traffic and Okamoto delivering two recent homers. Sánchez returning between them restores another left-handed barrel threat at the most useful spot in the order. Toronto’s offense has a focused matchup against the starter carrying the loudest contact and home-run exposure in this game.
Best bet: Toronto Blue Jays team total over 3.5 runs (-120). Holmes has survived an inflated strand rate while allowing walks, barrels, and home runs at rates that invite a four-run night. Toronto enters with its most dangerous middle-order configuration available, and its recent losing streak has concealed steady offensive pressure. Guerrero can begin innings, Sánchez restores the cleanup threat, and Okamoto has already shown his power travels inside Truist Park. Atlanta’s late bullpen can narrow the margin for error, so the damage must begin before the final innings. Holmes has given Toronto enough openings to make that expectation credible. This number is playable only through -120.
Projected score: Blue Jays 5, Braves 4.
Best bet: Blue Jays TT o3.5 (-120) vs. Braves
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