The AL East needs to be wary of the Toronto Blue Jays, as slowly but surely, last season’s pennant winners are climbing the standings. Despite a rough start to the season, the Blue Jays now occupy a Wild Card spot, and while that speaks more to the American League’s weakness overall than Toronto’s form, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a team that came four strikes away from a World Series title make it that far again.
The Blue Jays will face a tough test tonight, when they travel to begin a three-game set against the Atlanta Braves at 7:15 p.m. ET. Atlanta has the best record and the second-best run differential in baseball.
Kevin Gausman will start the series opener for Toronto, and the Braves will counter with Bryce Elder.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves prediction, preview
The Blue Jays had a difficult schedule to begin the season, with series against two risers in late 2025 (the Athletics and the Chicago White Sox) and a World Series rematch with the Los Angeles Dodgers all in the first two weeks, and since then, they haven’t climbed above .500. Still, eight wins in the span of 12 games is pretty good, and despite ranking just fifth-to-last in OPS for the season as a whole, they’ve had a league-average offense in May, so they’re trending in the right direction. George Springer could be due for a bounce-back, given how good he was last season, and Kazuma Okamoto will become more acquainted with MLB pitching. Plus, Toronto’s pitching staff has been better this season than it was in 2025, as Louis Varland has emerged as one of the best closers in baseball. At -115, betting on the Blue Jays to ultimately make the playoffs seems like solid value.
Atlanta, meanwhile, started off hot and has stayed hot, winning 22 of its first 31 games, and while an 18-11 record since then is slightly less impressive, that’s still a 101-win pace across the full season. The Braves have made lots of strides offensively relative to 2025, as they rank third in OPS after finishing 13th last season. The ever-brilliant Matt Olson leads the National League in doubles for the second consecutive season, and Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, and Drake Baldwin have all been worth at least 2.0 WAR, though Baldwin will likely remain sidelined with an oblique injury until the end of the month. Defensively, Atlanta has been brilliant, as its rotation has the league’s fifth-best ERA and its bullpen the lowest mark, and it’ll likely get even better once Spencer Schwellenbach eventually returns from his injury.
Gausman has been steady this season, recording a 3.13 ERA and only giving up more than two earned runs on three separate occasions. He’s currently in the middle of a 17.2-inning, two-run stretch. Advanced numbers back up his strong surface-level performance; he ranks in the 94th percentile in pitching run value and the 68th percentile in expected ERA. Additionally, Gausman has had exceptional control, ranking in the 98th percentile in walk rate, and the Braves haven’t walked much as is. He’s also been excellent at incentivizing chases, which Atlanta has also struggled with, and his overall ability to neutralize hard contact should be an asset against the Braves’ powerful lineup. Though Atlanta’s contact skills and Toronto’s below-average fielders might force him to face more traffic on the base paths than usual, he should still offer five or six effective innings, especially since he’s been better on the road and the Braves worse at home.
I’d take Gausman narrowly in the starting pitching matchup over Elder. Though Elder has had a strong season, posting a 2.50 ERA, he had just a 5.30 mark last season and could be in line for some regression. Indeed, he’s coming off of a rough outing, as he gave up five earned runs in 3.1 innings of work in his most recent start. His overall advanced metrics are narrowly better than Gausman’s, as he ranks in the 98th percentile in pitching run value and the 76th in expected ERA, but he also has more glaring weaknesses. While Gausman ranks at or near the league median in virtually every metric, Elder has struggled to generate whiffs, putting even more pressure on his defense against a team with elite bat-to-ball skills. He also ranks in just the 30th percentile in average exit velocity, which could help mitigate one of the Blue Jays’ biggest weaknesses. The Braves’ league-best defense should help keep Elder effective, but the splits aren’t totally in his favor, as he’s been worse at home throughout his career. As with Gausman, I’d expect five or six innings and one or two earned runs.
Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves pick, best bet
Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-102)
Toronto needs to find a better solution for the back end of its rotation, but its top two starters with Dylan Cease injured (Trey Yesavage and Gausman) have both been plenty effective. Atlanta’s offense is good, but Baldwin’s absence has hurt, and the Braves won’t do as much damage as quickly as usual given Gausman’s ability to induce soft contact.
Strong Lean: Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Extra Base Hits (+210)
Because Elder doesn’t do a great job inducing whiffs, he neutralizes Okamoto’s biggest weakness, and the Japanese slugger ranks in the top decile in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate. Truist Park is relatively double-friendly for right-handed hitters.
