The Cup Series rolls into Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Two miles of high-speed asphalt in the Irish Hills, fifty miles down the road from Detroit. Three names with real edges from the data below.
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NASCAR Best Bets for the FireKeepers 400
Denny Hamlin | Race Winner (+400)
It doesn’t get less exotic than betting the favorite. A longshot won the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte with pit strategy, and the Memorial Day weekend race paid out big. It was incredibly flukey and those wins are rare. It seems like those wins happen more often than not in the Gen 7 car. That’s just not the case, and Daniel Suarez’s surprise win is the perfect example. His win is sandwiched by Hamlin’s wins as the favorite — Dover and Nashville. Hamlin has three wins and seven top-5 finishes in the 10 traditional oval races this season.
How do his Michigan stats stack up? They’re on top of the stack as always. In the Gen 7 era, Hamlin has a top-10 finish in each race with three podiums and a win last season. Over his career, he has three wins and 20 top-10 finishes in 35 starts around this high-speed two-mile oval. He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since the 2019 spring Michigan race — an 11th for the No. 11. Hamlin will be there at the end, and that’s all it took at Nashville.
Chris Buescher | Race Winner (+2000)
Modern NASCAR fans don’t get it. The younger generation doesn’t get it. Michigan is a big race for the OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers). The Irish Hills of Michigan is just down the road from Detroit — the birthplace of the American automobile industry. Ford, Chevrolet, and even Toyota put extra attention into their Michigan stock cars. The RFK Fords go a little bit further. RFK owner Brad Keselowski is from Michigan. He wants this race more than anything.
It doesn’t look like Keselowski’s dream will ever come true, but it did for his driver in 2023. Buescher followed with a sixth-place finish in 2024 and a runner-up finish last season. This season, he’s the same Blue Collar Buescher. He wakes up every morning, puts his pants on, drinks a cup of coffee, finishes the race with a top 10, goes home, eats dinner, and goes to bed. He’ll be in the hunt at the end.
Top-10 Finish — Erik Jones (+300) and Brad Keselowski (+190)
Narratives are strong this weekend. Storylines rarely mean as much as speed. Brooklyn, Michigan storylines lead to speed. The manufacturers build their best cars for the auto industry’s home track. There is an extra layer of motivation. This is Erik Jones and Keselowski’s home track. They want the Michigan win and are always dialed in for this fast intermediate track. Keselowski has a top-10 finish in the last three Michigan races. Jones has an average finish of 11.5. That’s quite a mark for a driver on a small team.
