April showers bring May flowers, and May flowers bring…June power? League-wide, the summer months tend to bring homers, as warmer weather results in better conditions for balls to fly. Last June, players hit 924 homers in 8,260 player games, and there were 31 long balls yesterday alone.
Tonight, with all 30 teams in action, there should be plenty of big flies, especially with only a few teams starting their traditional aces.
Here are my three favorite home run prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Gunnar Henderson 1+ Home Run (+640)
Henderson only has the 10th-shortest home run odds in this game despite leading all players in the game in the stat. It’s not like he’s even been particularly cold, as he hit two homers on May 27 and has an .843 OPS and four homers across his last 16 games. He hasn’t been quite as good overall this season, posting a career-low .699 OPS, but he still ranks in the 64th percentile in barrel rate, a higher mark than he posted in either his rookie season or 2025. Additionally, he has a friendly matchup in Boston Red Sox lefty Connelly Early. While Early has been solid overall this season, posting a 2.95 ERA in 61.0 innings, he’s given up two homers in two of his last three starts, ranking in the 12th percentile in average exit velocity and the eighth percentile in barrel rate. On paper, Henderson’s odds are probably muted because of the lefty-on-lefty matchup, but he’s had reverse splits this season, posting an OPS 77 points higher against lefties than righties. His .420 xSLG against the lefty sinkers Early likes to offer isn’t elite, but his 50.0% hard-hit rate and 14.0% whiff rate against the pitch suggests he’s seeing it well.
JJ Bleday 1+ Home Run (+312)
I already wrote about this game (and Bleday) earlier, but there should be plenty of offense, given that neither Kansas City Royals starter Noah Cameron nor Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott has pitched very well this season and that Great American Ballpark has been the most homer-friendly park for lefties across the past three seasons. Bleday has been white-hot, posting a 1.362 OPS and mashing four homers in his last seven games, and for the season, he ranks in the top sextile in every power-related Statcast metric. He should have an easy time getting to Cameron, who ranks in just the 21st percentile in barrel rate this season. Cameron predominantly throws four-seamers, sliders, and cutters to fellow lefties, and Bleday (in a small sample size) has seen all three pitches well, posting a .509 xSLG against four-seamers, a .605 xSLG against sliders, and a 1.378 xSLG against cutters.
Tyler Soderstrom 1+ Home Runs (+640)
Soderstrom hasn’t been quite as good this season as his teammates Nick Kurtz or Shea Langeliers, but his odds are just a little bit friendlier than either of theirs. Kurtz, despite going deep in two of his past three games, hasn’t quite hit for as much power this season, and his intimidation factor is so strong that I’m not sure Jameson Taillon is going to give him anything to hit. As for Langeliers, he has a righty-on-righty matchup, and while Taillon hasn’t been good in general, he’s been better against righties than lefties. This season, Taillon leads all of the major leagues with 19 homers allowed, and he ranks in just the second percentile in barrel rate, and Soderstrom ranks in the 73rd percentile in barrel rate, going deep twice in his last five games. Taillon likes to throw four-seam fastballs, changeups, and curveballs to left-handed hitters, and while Soderstrom has been quite poor against righty changeups, he’s recorded a solid .522 xSLG against four-seamers.
