The Mercury are hosting the Lynx on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Minnesota is favored by 3.5 points and this game carries a total of 166.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Mercury vs. Lynx Preview
This will be the second time this season that the Mercury and Lynx have gone head-to-head. The first matchup was also in Phoenix, but Minnesota prevailed that night, 88-84.
Since then, the Mercury have only won once. After losing to the Aces in the WNBA Finals last season, Phoenix has been a major disappointment this season with a 2-7 record and ranking ninth in net rating. Satou Sabally departed for the Liberty this offseason and she has been greatly missed on both ends of the floor with Phoenix ranking ninth in both offensive and defensive rating.
Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper have been doing their jobs, leading the team with 18.4 and 16.7 PPG, respectively, but Phoenix is very thin on options after these two. Rookie Jovana Nogic got off to a strong start and was helping fill the void left behind by Sabally, but after the Mercury dropped three straight, Nogic was moved to the bench two games ago in favor of Monique Akoa Makani, which was a questionable move, as Nogic leads Phoenix in plus/minus this season.
With Nogic seeing a small role off the bench and Akoa Makani starting, the Mercury just lost back-to-back games to the Liberty and Phoenix has dropped five straight. Moving Nogic back into the first unit is the logical move, but that is unlikely to happen tonight and coming to town is a Lynx team that has been outstanding despite Naphessa Collier (ankle) being sidelined.
Minnesota owns the best record in the WNBA at 6-2, and the club leads the league in net rating. The Lynx’s defense has been their calling card, as they rank first in defensive rating and it’s not even close. Minnesota owns a 96.8 defensive rating while the Dream rank second at 100.0.
Courtney Williams continues to be very reliable and both Natasha Howard and Olivia Miles have been outstanding fits with the Lynx. Howard is averaging 17.3 points and 8.1 rebounds per game on 65% shooting, and Miles is averaging 15.4 points, 5.9 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game on 46% shooting in her rookie season. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Miles is a -185 favorite to win Rookie of the Year.
The Lynx have won four consecutive games and all these victories have been by double-digits. Collier is expected to resume basketball activities some time this month and adding the superstar to this thriving Minnesota club is a scary thought for the rest of the league.
Mercury vs. Lynx Pick, Best Bet
These two teams are trending in opposite directions right now and it’s difficult to have much faith in Phoenix tonight, even though the club is at home. The Mercury are just 1-3 at home while the Lynx are a perfect 4-0 on the road.
Minnesota’s league-best defense should give Phoenix’s struggling offense fits and the Lynx should win this game, possibly with ease. Minnesota is a league-best 7-1 ATS this season and the Lynx -3.5 is a terrific bet.
